Next Generation of "Bill Gates" in Asia

After reading news about Bill Gates and his idea about next generation of digital world, again, really open my eyes to think more - about - what is terminology of "an idea"? Well, you can find out yourself from internet, for sure! Anyway, an idea of my thought experiment was to think on how new technologies can help build better and more interactive content experiences, and at the same time also provide potential advertisers with targeted segments. Many times our legacy prevents us from thinking out of the box. Our habits change much slower than the relentless march of technology. And at the same time, it is the technological innovations which create new opportunities. The first ten years of internet in our lives have been a source of great value. May be next five will probably see even more innovation as content producers start seeing the power of the changes and extensions in internet's infrastructure.

In Asia, we have an opportunity to leapfrog and embrace much of this change. As the foundation of low-cost access devices (be it cheaper computers, thin clients, cellphones, TVs) leverage the communications base that is being built, any need will be for a new generation of services which go beyond the content that is in prevalence today. This is the opportunity for any Asian entrepreneurs (may) envision new services and applications for next hundred billion internet users.

Next question: are you?

Oil vs USD

After seeing oil prices leap to USD 116 per-barrel, and fluctuation that happened in forex index – really open my eyes – what the hell is going on? Anyway, correlations tell me very little about what is driving what. Whether, USD driving oil prices, or is it oil driving USD – and impact other forex?

The first thing to note is that some of the correlation between oil prices (which denominated in USD) and USD itself, has to do with accounting. And this ‘accounting correlation’ becomes clearer if (somehow) I think about this scenario: Assume that the global oil price were stable against a basket of global currencies (GDP weighted or weighted according to where oil is produced). In that situation, if EUR/USD appreciates, that would also means that the price of oil in USD terms would go up (to counter the effect of lower oil prices in EUR terms), and this would generate an ‘accounting correlation’ between EUR/USD and oil prices denominated in USD terms. But this ‘accounting correlation’ is hardly all there is to it. Honestly, I am confused as well …

All bankers and analyst told, there are good reasons to think that a good portion of the causality in the oil vs USD correlation is running from oil price moves to USD particularly in relation to the USD/Europe.

Next question: how about Asian index? (RMB, YEN, SGD, etc)