I Am Fooled by Randomness of Being Lucky or Smart

In a gloomy emotional feeling, somehow I am trying heart to focus and concentrate about what I can do better, well - I just want to share about life situation.Somehow, luck is a part of life, and everyone, at one point or another, gets lucky. Luck is also a big part of business life and perhaps the biggest part of entrepreneurial life. At the very least, entrepreneurs must believe in luck. Ideally, they can recognize it when they see it. And over time, the best entrepreneurs can actually learn to create luck.

But luck in the business is different from regular old luck, like when you find $20 on the sidewalk. First of all, being lucky in business has an intoxicating underbelly called believing you're smart. No one actually believes that he should take credit for finding $20 on the sidewalk. But when people get lucky in business, they are often convinced that it is not luck at all that brought them good fortune. They believe instead that their business venture succeeded thanks to their own blinding brilliance.

What I know, the big challenge is that everyone -- the press, your shareholders, your colleagues, your significant other, and your parents -- will work hard to convince you otherwise. They will tell you, over and over again, that you are in fact a genius and should take complete credit for all the great things happening to your company. Why? Because to them, you are one of the following:

1. A source of professional gain
2. A source of financial gain
3. A boss
4. A lover
5. Their pride and joy

Simply, none of these relationships provide incentive for any of these people to tell you the cold hard truth about your entrepreneurial success: You may have gotten just plain lucky *sigh*
From my perspective, the second difference between business luck and everyday luck is that luck in business can be created, whereas everyday luck cannot. You can't will yourself to find $20 on the sidewalk. But you can create a company that gets lucky more often than the average company. Indeed, there is a pseudo-scientific formula for creating business luck. The key element is this: Lucky things happen to entrepreneurs who start fundamentally innovative, morally compelling, and philosophically positive companies.

I guess this sums up how I feel: Was I lucky? You bet - I was lucky. But I was also smart: smart enough to realize that I was getting lucky... I have found someone that again breaking my life.

Next question: How about tomorrow - My Life and Views?

Internet and Beyond

My brain working so fast lately, dont know why? Anyway just in my head suddenly and I would like to sharing of information on YouTube and other Social Networking websites can be visualised and shared now.

The users can now upload the data they want to visualise at an experimental website manyeyes and check the technical information they need to know about their information on the web.
Reading a journal in the internet showing me that scientists at the Watson Research Centre of IBM in Cambridge, Massachusetts created the site to help people publish and discuss graphics in a group says the report. There is a good scope of analysis and the commenting on other's works by visualising the data through different tools and discover unexpected patterns in the data.
Now the users can embed images and links to their visualisations in websites or blogs, just as they can embed YouTube videos.

My friend told me a wise words " The gift of Internet is that everyone can participate, and the tools can be brought to a much wider audience." But somehow, "the great fun of information visualisation," and my comment is that it gives you answers to questions you didn't know you had!

Indonesia: Conspiracy Theories

Why did the market go up today after bomb? well, it was the PPT at work

Why you should not trust the employment figure or inflation figure?
well, the govt manipulates them

What causes bubbles in market?
politicians

Why are gold prices down?
Oh, the govt manipulates the gold prices.

If you look around in the market , you will see such conspiracy theories all over the place. We have become a nation of conspiracy theorists. Everything is a conspiracy according to some people.

Where do such conspiracy theories come from and why do they work? Understanding them can make you a better trader.

* There are leaders and followers
* There are good leaders and there are bad leaders
* Every leader has a agenda.
* Some leaders have positive agenda some have negative agenda.
* Leadership is about :
o ability to "attract" followers
o make followers "believe" in certain things
o prevent other leaders from "poaching" followers
o take followers from point A to B "willingly"
* Mental model manipulation is at the heart of successful leadership
* Autocratic leaders control,followers by use of force. But that is coercive leadership model where the followers are not "willingly" following "the great leader".
* Leaders manipulate followers mind using communication.
* Positive leaders change followers mind using rational and positive messages.
* Negative leaders change followers mind using conspiracies and irrational arguments.
* Behind every conspiracy theory are leaders who are trying to get "willing" followers.
* Most people are followers.
* There are very few leaders in the world, but there are vast number of followers.
* Big and consequential changes happen in the world, or in a company, or in your life if you come across good leaders.
* If you study history, you would see that every big change in the world was bought about by a good leader.
* There are many failed leaders in the world. In the absence of good leaders they attract followers using mental manipulation.
* Conspiracy theories are very good way to attract followers.
* Conspiracy theories can explain in simple terms things to followers.
* Powerless followers love conspiracy theory because it allows them to rationalise their failure and externalise the problem. They create a complex web of conspiracy theories to explain away everything. If you try and expose their logic with rational thinking and arguments, they will throw more nuanced conspiracy theories.
* The conspiracy theory proponents have their own rules of economics not proven by any existing economic theories. They are pseudo economists.
* Religions, cults, political parties, labor leaders, media commentators and so many other people with access to media use conspiracy theories very skillfully to "attract" and "retain " followers. Scratch deeper when you hear somebody propogating a conspiracy theory and you will find a leader trying to influence you. That person has some motive for it.
* If you want to understand how to manipulate minds study either religion or advertising.
* Both the disciplines use simple communication tricks to " influence" and "change" your mind. They do it with velvet gloves and leave no finger prints behind.
* If you do not control your mind, there are several outsiders waiting to influence it.


Why is understanding how conspiracy theories work is important to trading, because you trade what you believe. People trade their beliefs, not necessarily what will make them most money. Classic example of that are gold bugs and perma bears... Indonesia oh Indonesia...

Next question: do you think it will be another avalanche?

Outsourcing Your Life...

I was thinking the other day about how, in these awful economic times, outsourcing is affecting the economy.  I'm not referring to manufacturing because frankly if the defect rate & cost is lower and the time to market is not significantly impacted, that decision is a no brainer.

I'm referring to the companies who have chosen to outsource, for example, their call centers, network operation, etc.  The benefits of cost and 24/7 availability is clear.  However level of service and revenue generation are at most worse than the US economy. 

But the killer is that hundreds of thousands of jobs that would normally pay between $10-20 are gone.  I think those types of jobs are the ones that provide the foundation for our macro economy.  Those jobs are fuel for car purchases, mortgage payments, etc.

I worked at a company where our boss (who is trying to be an absolute superstar) had a wild proposition:

- Provide world class service looking out for the best interests of the customer first in a simple way (i.e., don't "jam" offers down their throats)

- The revenue will follow** (sensitive)

He was right.  He's done on a smaller scale and a huge scale.  It can be done but most companies don't do it or worse don't even believe it can be done.

In the meantime, our economy keeps sucking wind and when it comes back, we still won't have the valuable foundation that these types of jobs provide.

Next question: are we an asset or liability in the company?

VoIP Theory and Beyond

Following my early journal - recently, I just read an article again; theorizes that the stock market meltdown and slowing economy will actually spur faster VoIP growth.

It was mentioned that more and more people will be under the gun to cut costs. There are a number of ways to cut costs but one way to cut costs tends to jump out at you -- the PHONE BILL. This will force many companies to take the digital/VoIP plunge. As a result, VoIP sales will increase significantly over the next year or two.

Additionally, stock market crash has effectively pulled in the VoIP growth curve by 6-12 months or more! As identified in the Post-Melt Down chart, VoIP sales may increase by 200-300% over previous forecasts. Thus, next year's VoIP growth can be expected to jump from 4% to 8% or 12% or more next year... (let see!)

Of course theories, and pretty chart graphs can be made to make anything look good. Is the VoIP industry truly headed towards faster growth in this economic climate? I tend to agree, even with comment from my colleague. There are indications that not only enterprises, but also municipalities and public services are deploying VoIP to save on costs. 

Anyway... my simple comment that some example doesn't make it the rule, I do think companies, municipalities, etc. are looking to cut costs and VoIP is one sure-fire way to do just that... rest is about people behaviour

VoIP in Bear Economy

I just read an interesting report by IBISWorld just named VoIP as the predicted #1 performer In 2009 - it even beat video games. Yet more proof that VoIP isn't dead and indeed VoIP is the one shining bright spot in an otherwise dismal bear economy as we know currently.

VoIP is indeed defying the "bears" of the economy. Reminds me of when Tarzan defied that huge tiger in the woods. Sure, the tiger got on top of Tarzan, this was just a training exercise for Tarzan's "You don't want to tick me off stare." At the end of the wresting match, Tarzan just looked at the tiger, the tiger knew he lost, and walked away. Tigers don't mess with Tarzan and apparently this symbolic symptom in bear of the economy don't mess with VoIP. 

Check out the news release below after you watch Tarzan give the tiger his patented stare down:

 

Top 10 Industries

By IBISWorld (2009)

The recession is crippling businesses across the nation, but several industries will remain unscathed by the current economic strife, according to recent Recession Updates published by industry research firm IBISWorld.  As one of the nation's most respected independent publishers of business intelligence research reports, IBISWorld today announced the top 10 industries expected to have the largest revenue growth in 2009:

INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH 2009

1.    Voice Over Internet Protocol Providers (VoIP)   20.1%

2.    ecommerce & Online Auctions                                12.6%

3.    Biotechnology                                                               10.3%

4.    Engine, Turbine & Power Transmission               10.0%

       Equipment Manufacturing 

5.    Scheduled Bus Service                                                 9.2%

6.    Court Reporting Services                                            7.7%

7.    Community Housing Services                                   7.5%

8.    Search Engines                                                               6.5%

9.    Family Counseling                                                        6.1%

10.   Video Games                                                                   5.8%

"Emerging industries remain well represented and continue to benefit from technological innovation and cost advantages," explained George Van Horn, senior analyst with IBISWorld.  "Unfortunately, the impact of the recession is equally pronounced among sectors directly benefitting from the social and financial stress associated with the downturn." 

While only five percent of all U.S. industries are fortunate enough to be positively impacted by the recession, IBISWorld research estimates that nearly 60 percent of all industries are negatively impacted or worse.

Next question: Everywhere in the world！What do you think?

2009 Another Storm?

Hard to say! Well...understandably, many investors are glued to high-frequency indicators such as macro data and corporate announcements as they try to feel for an inflection point in the crisis. Portfolios tend to be positioned with respect to this – either on the defensive side of the line, anticipating a prolonged spell of worsening news, or on the

riskier side, hoping to benefit from the first glimmerings of light at the end of tunnel.

The outlook for the global economy continues to deteriorate. Incoming data have, almost uniformly, surprised on the downside. A combination of declining wealth, notably higher uncertainty, and financial disruptions appears to have led to sharp declines in demand around the world. A significant contraction in international trade is helping to propagate these shocks around the globe. Sharply contracting output is likely to lead to further declines in demand as income falls rapidly. There are scant signs that the momentum of this negative cycle is waning.

Policymakers are trying to contain this process through actions on three broad fronts: monetary, fiscal, and financial. Inflation continues to fall rapidly in most countries in the face of lower commodity prices and rapidly growing output gaps. Central banks are lowering short-term interest rates where they can. However, for an increasing number

of central banks, conventional policy tools are at, or are fast approaching, their limits. They are moving on to other options. Fiscal policy is easing in many countries as well, but not with equal force. China, Russia, and the United States appear set to implement the most aggressive fiscal expansions.

Somehow, the biggest changes have come in those countries that are particularly exposed to international trade. I expect the Japanese economy to contract through the end of this year, with real output GDP falling 3-1/2%. Similarly, I am seeing real output to fall in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan this year, and we expect the Russian economy to stagnate (ref from many financial news). I see this all the major industrial economies to contract substantially this year, and only sputtering recoveries until 2010. For emerging economies, 2009 is likely to be the worst year of growth performance since the crisis of 1998. For the global economy as a whole, this is likely to be the worst year for growth in almost 60 years.

Ironically, the long term shape of the world is easier to describe than the short-term transition. How quickly the private sector deleverages and whether it responds to fiscal and monetary stimulus are open questions. But regardless of how the world gets there, we believe that it will have certain characteristics – less leveraged, less imbalanced in trade flows, more regulated and so on.

Next question: Can we change this condition?