A copy from my journal in Facebook: --
It was about 10 years ago in March 1998 that I packed my bags and traveled 1st time to China after a stay of almost two years in Brussels. I was fortunate to have an exceptional education - in Vrije Universiteit Brussels and then at University of Chicago (1999). When I went to the US, my father had only one thing to say to me: "I grew up with hard working environment. If I could come back then, you have no reason to stay there any longer than necessary". For me, the decision to return and staying to Asia was made before I left.
China has been the flavour of the year internationally in 2007 and that looks likely to continue in 2008 forward. The past year has seen very favourable write-ups in many international publications. Outsourcing to China companies continues to grow rapidly - in software and other areas. Many companies are expanding their presence in China. China companies themselves are looking to grow globally. The China stock market performed spectacularly (before global impact recently).
Almost every investor and senior executive has started to think about China. For some, it is about leveraging China's cheaper skilled labor. For some others, it is about capitalising on China's growing domestic consumption. And for investors, it is about China's attractive returns on investments (still).
Whether it be the steady stream of investment announcements in China as companies grow their operations or the flow of visitors seeking to "discover the new China", there is now little doubt that China is starting to get factored into the plans that companies are making. The outsourcing and services story is well-known. But as incomes start to rise (and salaries are indeed rising rapidly in the white-collar sector), domestic consumption is starting to take off. (These two factors are the principal drivers behind the real estate boom in China big cities)
This is a journey which needs many travellers - explorers, astronomers, scientists, financiers, engineers, economists, and others. Some will make it to the finishing line, others won't. The joy for everyone has to be in the journey.
China is the flavour of the day. But we need to make it more than that. China needs a few decades of sustained development to make up for all the lost time. We have the world's biggest population. If we are not to disappoint and lose this generation, we need to work on building the China of tomorrow. We may not be easily able to change our politicians and policies, but I firmly believe that we can use our innovation and entrepreneurial abilities to bring about change. We have to do this not between two generation, but between two elections. The China Rising story needs to not become a chapter but a book.
There are many opportunities - to both catalyse (do good) and capitalise (do well) on China's development. The road ahead does not have any maps. Instead, all we have is a compass. There are slippery rocks. And as we navigate through, we have to, in the words, "like the feeling to be a China-man"
Next Question: Can I?
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Risk Analysis - Trend of Corruption in 2008
Buzz word of corruption always in the news since past decade. The persistence of corruption in some of big countries may reflect the presence of immigrant communities in these countries, in which barter and other forms of reciprocal dealing based on (and constructing) relations of trust, extended family relationships, clan ties, and the like continue to organize significant economic activity and make it natural to think of public officials as "selling" public services to their friends and relatives. Again, problem of corruption in 2008 underscores the importance of the legal framework to economic development. An honest, incorruptible police, criminal law enforcement machinery, and judiciary can increase economic efficiency by greatly reducing the amount of corruption (as well as in other ways), though it is equally important to have a commitment to free markets and a workable legislative and regulatory machinery to prevent economic activity from becoming encrusted with inefficient restrictions.
My personal comment I concentrate on corruption that on balance is bad. Obviously, if governments strongly regulate many activities, then companies, unions, and other groups that are regulated can do better if they can "bribe" officials to overlook or relax these regulations. So the wider is the reach of governments, the greater is the corruption potential. Somehow, other than narrowing the scope of government and strengthening legal institutions, what can be done to reduce (bad) corruption? One simple step is to improve the incentives of officials to act honestly. The incentive to be honest would be stronger when officials are better paid, and if they are fired from their well-paying jobs, and sometimes also punished rather severely if they are caught engaging in corrupt behavior. A few studies do support this conclusion that corruption thrives more in environments where officials are badly paid, such as policemen in most of Asian counties (name it - Indonesia? China? India?).
In a role - corruption is reduced by greater competition between separate political jurisdictions and stronger competition for political leadership. This implies that corruption is lower in decentralized political systems compared to centralized systems. Various studies do indicate that democracies generally appear to have less corruption than totalitarian systems, although some of the corruption in totalitarian systems like the Soviet Union may be of the good kind because the laws are so bad. And, corruption is reduced when information is more easily disseminated to the public. That is why a free press is such an important protector against greater corruption. The press is more effective in better educated societies, and various studies have shown that corruption is lower when education is greater. Education also helps cut corruption by improving political institutions, so part of the positive relation between the amount of corruption and the weakness of institution is the result of the positive connection between education and good institutions.
Next question - Can we stop this?
My personal comment I concentrate on corruption that on balance is bad. Obviously, if governments strongly regulate many activities, then companies, unions, and other groups that are regulated can do better if they can "bribe" officials to overlook or relax these regulations. So the wider is the reach of governments, the greater is the corruption potential. Somehow, other than narrowing the scope of government and strengthening legal institutions, what can be done to reduce (bad) corruption? One simple step is to improve the incentives of officials to act honestly. The incentive to be honest would be stronger when officials are better paid, and if they are fired from their well-paying jobs, and sometimes also punished rather severely if they are caught engaging in corrupt behavior. A few studies do support this conclusion that corruption thrives more in environments where officials are badly paid, such as policemen in most of Asian counties (name it - Indonesia? China? India?).
In a role - corruption is reduced by greater competition between separate political jurisdictions and stronger competition for political leadership. This implies that corruption is lower in decentralized political systems compared to centralized systems. Various studies do indicate that democracies generally appear to have less corruption than totalitarian systems, although some of the corruption in totalitarian systems like the Soviet Union may be of the good kind because the laws are so bad. And, corruption is reduced when information is more easily disseminated to the public. That is why a free press is such an important protector against greater corruption. The press is more effective in better educated societies, and various studies have shown that corruption is lower when education is greater. Education also helps cut corruption by improving political institutions, so part of the positive relation between the amount of corruption and the weakness of institution is the result of the positive connection between education and good institutions.
Next question - Can we stop this?
Network Load vs Ported Mobile Phone Numbers
Based on my experience currently in Malaysia, Telekom Malaysia (TM) launched their new Voice Network Query service that enables Celcom (mobile operator) to route voice calls to mobile phones directly to destination operator, minimizing network load. Now that regulations force Celcom to allow customers to port their mobile phone numbers, this introduces some network traffic issues. Of course, I should mention that you can port your traditional landline phone number to a VoIP providers, but that introduces its own series of number portability problems. In any case, this service which will allow major telecoms carriers to route voice calls to mobile phones directly to their destination network operator. The new service overcomes the issue of onward routing of voice calls to ported mobile numbers, thus reducing the issue of excess network traffic generated by voice calls misrouted due to mobile number portability.
When a mobile user switches network but retains their current phone number, calls have traditionally been routed via the user's former operator's infrastructure, which then routes calls to the operator which now provides service to the customer. This double handling of calls generates additional network traffic and transmission costs which, ultimately, are passed on to subscribers. With TM's Voice Network Query, TM customers can check the actual network of a mobile number before routing the call, thus routing the voice call directly to the correct network and avoiding unnecessary network traffic.
TM is able to offer this service by leveraging its SS7 connections into the global mobile network. Using their access directly into mobile operators (ie. Celcom), TM can query any mobile number to establish its home network, whichever operator that number might have originated on.
Somehow - my personal statement says - mobile Number Portability is a great thing for consumers but has caused huge amounts of problems in the routing of voice calls and lack of tariff transparency for the subscriber. Because mobile numbers are attached to a particular operator, when that number is ported onto a customer's new operator, the routing process can become hugely complex. Voice Network Query overcomes that problem with a simple and elegant solution - by 'asking' the phone what network its sitting on before routing the call it's possible to connect directly to the right network without the hassle and cost of unnecessary connections through intermediary operators.
Next question - How they market this 'easily' to us?
When a mobile user switches network but retains their current phone number, calls have traditionally been routed via the user's former operator's infrastructure, which then routes calls to the operator which now provides service to the customer. This double handling of calls generates additional network traffic and transmission costs which, ultimately, are passed on to subscribers. With TM's Voice Network Query, TM customers can check the actual network of a mobile number before routing the call, thus routing the voice call directly to the correct network and avoiding unnecessary network traffic.
TM is able to offer this service by leveraging its SS7 connections into the global mobile network. Using their access directly into mobile operators (ie. Celcom), TM can query any mobile number to establish its home network, whichever operator that number might have originated on.
Somehow - my personal statement says - mobile Number Portability is a great thing for consumers but has caused huge amounts of problems in the routing of voice calls and lack of tariff transparency for the subscriber. Because mobile numbers are attached to a particular operator, when that number is ported onto a customer's new operator, the routing process can become hugely complex. Voice Network Query overcomes that problem with a simple and elegant solution - by 'asking' the phone what network its sitting on before routing the call it's possible to connect directly to the right network without the hassle and cost of unnecessary connections through intermediary operators.
Next question - How they market this 'easily' to us?
Friday, January 18, 2008
Changing Landscape in 2008
Again, I want to share about Technology Trends for 2008. First in mind, technology touches us all - in every aspect of our life. Our digital lives have been transformed in the past ten years. Computers have digital representations of our personal and work lives embedded in our emails and documents, cellphones connect us instantaneously with family and friends, and websites assist us in the search for information and to complete transactions. Technological change continues to accelerate, providing the visionaries with an opportunity for that little extra competitive advantage which can make all the difference between market leaders and the also-rans. As we look at the various technology trends last year, it is important to understand the underlying forces of change and their evolution in the years to come. This is how new opportunities and business are created. Since change is happening across many dimensions, it is also important to get a who-listic view of the world around us.
In addition, there is a need to develop a perspective that centres around emerging markets. These are the next big growth markets and need solutions which are likely to be different from the developed market. Increasingly, many of the world's largest technology companies are looking to create specific emerging market groups and solutions. The developed world has seen computing and communications evolve through many sequential revolutions: personal computers, local area networks, client-server computing, enterprise software, Internet, next generation of network, mobile phones and broadband. Next questions - what happened in the developed markets over two decades is being compressed in the emerging markets in a few years. This means that more than just technology innovation, there is a need for agility, speed and localisation to tap into the opportunities by technology's newest customers. Is it expensive?
To put this context, take a look at China and the changes that are underway. Cellphone adoption is growing, even China Mobile just announced over the course of the quarter, they added 17.3M new customers, and the phone is morphing from just a voice device to both a possible alternative to a computer and is becoming a fashion statement. Computers are becoming a wee-bit more affordable with the likes of AMD vs INTEL making inroads with cheaper processor. Broadband access is starting to become available at reasonable price points. Open-source software creates an alternative to piracy and non-consumption. Internet e-commerce is starting to pick up again with services like airline ticket booking which remove a pain point in daily lives. Technology is no longer a decision to be just made by the management in the company. It is increasingly going to get embedded in multiple aspects of our lives. It is a weapon that needs to be leveraged by top management not just in the marketplace, but also across the extended enterprise. In this context, it is helpful to step back and take a look at ten key technology trends that we are seeing around us and understand their impact for our personal and business lives.
2008 Trends:
1. Digitisation
Fundamental driver across the technology landscape is digitisation - once things move from atoms to bits, or analog to digital, it becomes possible to do a wide array of transformations which previously were not possible. For example, digital music. For a long time, as the industry has shifted to digital content, it has become possible to not only time-shift consumption via customised playlists on devices like Apple's iPod, but also to distribute it via the Internet for nearly zero-cost, fundamentally undermining the business model of the industry. Something similar is happening in telecom with voice-over-IP. Traditional telcos are realising that the ability to digitise voice and transmit it not over proprietary networks but over the Internet threatens their core business and customer relationship. The digitisation of information and business processes means that countries like China can use their low-cost advantage to offer outsourced services to global organisations.
The process that began with the availability of the personal computer a quarter-century ago is now cutting across the value chain, creating an end-to-end integrated digital flow. From our homes to enterprises, digitisation is the starting point for many disruptive innovations as part of "creative destruction", driving significant changes across industries, bringing not just change but also opportunity in a world that's becoming smaller and smaller. Next Question - cost and security?
2. IT Commoditisation
Back to 2007 - silicon, Storage and Bandwidth are available in plenty. Processing power doubles every 18 months, storage capacity every 9 months and available bandwidth every 12 months. This has been happening for some time now, and is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The result is there for us to see. Google has built a massive platform with more than 1Mio commodity computers and is in a position to offer free services like email with a storage capacity of 1 GB email. The cost of 1 GB disk space has fallen to just about $1. In countries like Japan and Korea, bandwidth of the order of 30 Mbps is available for about $50... great huh?
Global investment in technology continues. There are more than a billion cellphones around the world, with 2007 seeing sales of more than a billion phones which provide all kinds of functionality ranging from digital cameras, multimedia messaging, FM radio, TV and even some basic computing functions. Again, even in China has wireless data networks in hundreds of major cities with connectivity costs of in minumum (China Mobile vs China Unicom). Seemingly, technology is ubiquitous and everywhere. Or is it? But again - in countries like China, adoption of IT still leaves a lot to be desired. Only the very top of the pyramid uses technology. There are four barriers which need to be overcome for these countries to benefit from the commoditisation of IT: the information barrier, on what technology can really do; the desirabaility barrier, through the availability of relevant and useful software and applications; the manageability barrier, so that IT can be easily deployed and leveraged; the affordabaility barrier, which makes it available at prices that local users can pay.
3. TCO Issues
What is TCO? Term of Total Cost of Ownership - as spending on IT has increased in enterprises, there has been an increasing attention being paid to the TCO in technology. It is not longer just the upfront cost paid for hardware and software that needs to be taken into account, but the overall cost that goes into administration of the systems deployed. As growth has slowed, increasing attention is being paid to the TCO of technology in organisations -- new terminology is 'managed services'.
4. Real-Time Application
The dream of the real-time enterprise (RTE) has been there since the earliest software systems were written. Success has been achieved to varying degrees by different organisations. The challenge is what fuels the various business software companies and the looming consolidation in the industry (considering Oracle's bid for Bea recently). In business, the differentiator is increasingly not in the machines used for production, but in the processes that make up the information refinery. An example of a real-time enterprise is Cisco, which is known to be able to close its books every day. Service-oriented architectures are helping glue the various information silos within the enterprise to create an event-driven platform, built around business processes.
Now, the increasing availability of affordable high-speed network connectivity and its derivatives is letting certain functions within the enterprise interact in real time. The business drivers for RTE technologies continue to drive adoption: Reducing the amount of time it takes for information to be transmitted between functional areas within an enterprise and its supporting supply chain will yield significant business benefits.
5. Security
If there is one single word that is uppermost in 2008, it is security. The proliferation of viruses, spam and spyware have caused headaches aplenty. In addition, the ability to connect various company locations via a virtual private network (VPN) over the Internet also means that data needs to be sent securely. Firewalls, Intrusion Detection, Encryption have all become part of the technology vocabulary. If anything, the emphasis on security will continue to increase in times to come. What we consumers need is a simple, unified protection plan to counter all of these threats. And the computer, software and Internet industries have badly failed us in this regard. They would rather dump the security mess in the laps of users than solve it at the level where a solution really belongs: in the operating system, or the hardware, or the online provider's servers. Next Question - so, anyone up to it?
6. e-Business (raise of dot-com?)
Again, Internet has become a key ally in doing business. A company that neglects its website may be committing commercial suicide. A website is increasingly becoming the gateway to a company's brand, products and services - even if the firm does not sell online(?). Again sample in China (although I don't understand their language), I am seeing an increase in online commerce. The world of e-business is here in full force. And, if we take a look back in the late 1990s when the Internet hype was at its peak, the belief was that the Internet would change everything. Every industry would be transformed. If something wasn't on the Internet, it didn't exist. Then, reality set in. There are many businesses which the Internet has made a difference too. By reducing transaction costs, it has helped consumers get lower prices and forced producers to become more efficient. By bridging geographical barriers, it has allowed companies to open up new markets. Search engines like Google have allowed small businesses to reach out to potential customers far more cost-effectively than other media. Electronic marketplaces like eBay have seen many build businesses around them.
As with any new infrastructure, it takes time for its full potential to be realised. Increasing broadband availability will only accelerate the trend. As the ecosystem around the Internet gets put in place, we are moving closer to the future where e-business and e-commerce become synonymous with business and the commerce, and the "e"-prefix simply disappears. Next Question - when?
7. Collaboration
Productivity emerges from teams of people working together to achieve a common goal. Making groups more productive is the next big challenge that is being tackled by many companies. The focus now has been on tools that make writing - individually and in teams - easier. One of the key requirements - really a very simple one to have, but something so sorely left out in the current system, is a presence indicator. Much like in current IM systems - telling us who's available, who's logged in and therefore present in the office, who I can ping for a query, and ensuring that a response is received. In the case of his organisation, currently, they'd send an email, wait for a response, followed by more emails as reminders, and finally in sheer frustration, pick up the phone and make a call - which can be expensive if outstation (as is the case very often in their line of business) and does not always ensure that they will get a response - what if the person is away from the office? Well, somehow - we aren't there yet, but getting close. A combination of new technologies are coming together to make it easier for us to work together in groups - be it in the workpace or among friends and family.
8. Always "On"
I am trying to make sample in Asia biggest nation, China - around five years ago, it would have been hard to imagine that Chineses people would be buying cellphones at the rate of nearly 2 million a month. Similarly, today, it is hard to imagine a broadband China? but that is exactly what we are about to see. The next couple years will see Chinese consumers and enterprises enveloped in ubiquitous, high-speed connectivity from multiple sources - wireless, DSL, cable and satellite (hopefully, not only in big major cities). Complement this with WiFi-enabled laptops and smartphones, and the always-on world is at hand. This will necessitate a change in the not just employees work, but also the interactions between enterprises and customers.
In China, China Mobile and China Unicom (well, only 2 big players *sigh*)'s data services have become very popular with laptop users as they provide instant access from anywhere. Year 2008 will see cellphone sales of nearly next billion. Each cellphone makes its owner instantly connected to a worldwide network. As more and more features are packed into cellphones, they are becoming cameras, radios and TVs, gaming devices, and even computers. Smart radios are being embedded into all kinds of devices. Also, microchips embedded in products are creating an 'Internet of things'. Also, a mix of broadband and wireless technologies are providing bandwidth aplenty anywhere and everywhere. From WiFi to WiMax, Zigbee to Ultrawideband, Mobile-Fi to 3G/HSDPA or even 4G(?), there is no space which can remain unwired and no device which can stay unconnected. Backhaul networks on fibre are creating a world where it is now even more economical to carry voice over packet-switched IP networks. It is a world where, according to one of the Skype co-founders, telcos will become software application providers (hahahaha...)
The world of always-on in a natural manifestation of the convergence of various industries - computing, telecom and consumer electronics. It is a world which telecom- and computing-poor infrastructures like in developing countries can leapfrog to, with the right vision and will. Just like South Korea and Japan has done.
9. Advanced Outsourcing
Since 2007, outsourcing is a fundamental trend, and there is little any US government is going to be able to do anything about it. What is clear is that companies globally are relooking at their cost structures and leveraging the commoditisation that has taken place in IT as well as services to focus on what they do best. It is hard to overlook a 30-70% cost savings for certain processes, but that is just the start. What outsourcing also allows is to also fundamentally redesign business processes. This is what companies like IBM, PwC, KPMG, etc; are onow offering the global majors.
Somehow, the goal is not to replace people. The people are where the creativity comes from. But you take the repeatable, standardizeable pieces and put them in software that we deliver either as products or as specialized services. The humans can apply more of their creativity to the piece that only humans can do. The emergence of Web services is the technological base and the lingua franca that makes the idea of a services stack possible. You have to somehow bridge the world of software to the world of business processes.
10. New Emerging Market as Drivers
Overviewing first phase of the technology revolution over the past few decades has touched the lives of the top of the global pyramid of consumers and enterprises. It is only in the past few years that technology has started making its way into the lives of businesses and families at the bottom of the pyramid - in the emerging markets. Because of the lack of legacy and an inherent need, adoption of some technologies has turned out be extremely rapid. Sample that I have read, in China, about a million computers are purchased every month, as compared to 5 million cellphones. Now imagine what would happen if computers were available at the price points of cellphones. We will then see annual computer sales at 20-25 million for many years to come, making China among the top three markets in the world. What does that mean for the global technology players for whom China has so far been a rounding off error in their revenues and profits? Emerging markets, by virtue of their large numbers, have the potential to be the hotbed for disruptive innovations. They are the new markets which can ignite growth at technology companies. But at the same time, they need solutions which need to be at different price-points from what the developed world has been paying. This is both a challenge and an opportunity.
End of the story - in the world of technology, like time, does not stand still. Innovation and change are the only constants. In Asia, place that I am currently staying, have the opportunity to leapfrog by simultaneously leveraging many of the new innovations that the technology industry is making available. The force of digitisation is at once a threat and an opportunity. The choice is for each one of us to make.Next Question - do you?
In addition, there is a need to develop a perspective that centres around emerging markets. These are the next big growth markets and need solutions which are likely to be different from the developed market. Increasingly, many of the world's largest technology companies are looking to create specific emerging market groups and solutions. The developed world has seen computing and communications evolve through many sequential revolutions: personal computers, local area networks, client-server computing, enterprise software, Internet, next generation of network, mobile phones and broadband. Next questions - what happened in the developed markets over two decades is being compressed in the emerging markets in a few years. This means that more than just technology innovation, there is a need for agility, speed and localisation to tap into the opportunities by technology's newest customers. Is it expensive?
To put this context, take a look at China and the changes that are underway. Cellphone adoption is growing, even China Mobile just announced over the course of the quarter, they added 17.3M new customers, and the phone is morphing from just a voice device to both a possible alternative to a computer and is becoming a fashion statement. Computers are becoming a wee-bit more affordable with the likes of AMD vs INTEL making inroads with cheaper processor. Broadband access is starting to become available at reasonable price points. Open-source software creates an alternative to piracy and non-consumption. Internet e-commerce is starting to pick up again with services like airline ticket booking which remove a pain point in daily lives. Technology is no longer a decision to be just made by the management in the company. It is increasingly going to get embedded in multiple aspects of our lives. It is a weapon that needs to be leveraged by top management not just in the marketplace, but also across the extended enterprise. In this context, it is helpful to step back and take a look at ten key technology trends that we are seeing around us and understand their impact for our personal and business lives.
2008 Trends:
1. Digitisation
Fundamental driver across the technology landscape is digitisation - once things move from atoms to bits, or analog to digital, it becomes possible to do a wide array of transformations which previously were not possible. For example, digital music. For a long time, as the industry has shifted to digital content, it has become possible to not only time-shift consumption via customised playlists on devices like Apple's iPod, but also to distribute it via the Internet for nearly zero-cost, fundamentally undermining the business model of the industry. Something similar is happening in telecom with voice-over-IP. Traditional telcos are realising that the ability to digitise voice and transmit it not over proprietary networks but over the Internet threatens their core business and customer relationship. The digitisation of information and business processes means that countries like China can use their low-cost advantage to offer outsourced services to global organisations.
The process that began with the availability of the personal computer a quarter-century ago is now cutting across the value chain, creating an end-to-end integrated digital flow. From our homes to enterprises, digitisation is the starting point for many disruptive innovations as part of "creative destruction", driving significant changes across industries, bringing not just change but also opportunity in a world that's becoming smaller and smaller. Next Question - cost and security?
2. IT Commoditisation
Back to 2007 - silicon, Storage and Bandwidth are available in plenty. Processing power doubles every 18 months, storage capacity every 9 months and available bandwidth every 12 months. This has been happening for some time now, and is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The result is there for us to see. Google has built a massive platform with more than 1Mio commodity computers and is in a position to offer free services like email with a storage capacity of 1 GB email. The cost of 1 GB disk space has fallen to just about $1. In countries like Japan and Korea, bandwidth of the order of 30 Mbps is available for about $50... great huh?
Global investment in technology continues. There are more than a billion cellphones around the world, with 2007 seeing sales of more than a billion phones which provide all kinds of functionality ranging from digital cameras, multimedia messaging, FM radio, TV and even some basic computing functions. Again, even in China has wireless data networks in hundreds of major cities with connectivity costs of in minumum (China Mobile vs China Unicom). Seemingly, technology is ubiquitous and everywhere. Or is it? But again - in countries like China, adoption of IT still leaves a lot to be desired. Only the very top of the pyramid uses technology. There are four barriers which need to be overcome for these countries to benefit from the commoditisation of IT: the information barrier, on what technology can really do; the desirabaility barrier, through the availability of relevant and useful software and applications; the manageability barrier, so that IT can be easily deployed and leveraged; the affordabaility barrier, which makes it available at prices that local users can pay.
3. TCO Issues
What is TCO? Term of Total Cost of Ownership - as spending on IT has increased in enterprises, there has been an increasing attention being paid to the TCO in technology. It is not longer just the upfront cost paid for hardware and software that needs to be taken into account, but the overall cost that goes into administration of the systems deployed. As growth has slowed, increasing attention is being paid to the TCO of technology in organisations -- new terminology is 'managed services'.
4. Real-Time Application
The dream of the real-time enterprise (RTE) has been there since the earliest software systems were written. Success has been achieved to varying degrees by different organisations. The challenge is what fuels the various business software companies and the looming consolidation in the industry (considering Oracle's bid for Bea recently). In business, the differentiator is increasingly not in the machines used for production, but in the processes that make up the information refinery. An example of a real-time enterprise is Cisco, which is known to be able to close its books every day. Service-oriented architectures are helping glue the various information silos within the enterprise to create an event-driven platform, built around business processes.
Now, the increasing availability of affordable high-speed network connectivity and its derivatives is letting certain functions within the enterprise interact in real time. The business drivers for RTE technologies continue to drive adoption: Reducing the amount of time it takes for information to be transmitted between functional areas within an enterprise and its supporting supply chain will yield significant business benefits.
5. Security
If there is one single word that is uppermost in 2008, it is security. The proliferation of viruses, spam and spyware have caused headaches aplenty. In addition, the ability to connect various company locations via a virtual private network (VPN) over the Internet also means that data needs to be sent securely. Firewalls, Intrusion Detection, Encryption have all become part of the technology vocabulary. If anything, the emphasis on security will continue to increase in times to come. What we consumers need is a simple, unified protection plan to counter all of these threats. And the computer, software and Internet industries have badly failed us in this regard. They would rather dump the security mess in the laps of users than solve it at the level where a solution really belongs: in the operating system, or the hardware, or the online provider's servers. Next Question - so, anyone up to it?
6. e-Business (raise of dot-com?)
Again, Internet has become a key ally in doing business. A company that neglects its website may be committing commercial suicide. A website is increasingly becoming the gateway to a company's brand, products and services - even if the firm does not sell online(?). Again sample in China (although I don't understand their language), I am seeing an increase in online commerce. The world of e-business is here in full force. And, if we take a look back in the late 1990s when the Internet hype was at its peak, the belief was that the Internet would change everything. Every industry would be transformed. If something wasn't on the Internet, it didn't exist. Then, reality set in. There are many businesses which the Internet has made a difference too. By reducing transaction costs, it has helped consumers get lower prices and forced producers to become more efficient. By bridging geographical barriers, it has allowed companies to open up new markets. Search engines like Google have allowed small businesses to reach out to potential customers far more cost-effectively than other media. Electronic marketplaces like eBay have seen many build businesses around them.
As with any new infrastructure, it takes time for its full potential to be realised. Increasing broadband availability will only accelerate the trend. As the ecosystem around the Internet gets put in place, we are moving closer to the future where e-business and e-commerce become synonymous with business and the commerce, and the "e"-prefix simply disappears. Next Question - when?
7. Collaboration
Productivity emerges from teams of people working together to achieve a common goal. Making groups more productive is the next big challenge that is being tackled by many companies. The focus now has been on tools that make writing - individually and in teams - easier. One of the key requirements - really a very simple one to have, but something so sorely left out in the current system, is a presence indicator. Much like in current IM systems - telling us who's available, who's logged in and therefore present in the office, who I can ping for a query, and ensuring that a response is received. In the case of his organisation, currently, they'd send an email, wait for a response, followed by more emails as reminders, and finally in sheer frustration, pick up the phone and make a call - which can be expensive if outstation (as is the case very often in their line of business) and does not always ensure that they will get a response - what if the person is away from the office? Well, somehow - we aren't there yet, but getting close. A combination of new technologies are coming together to make it easier for us to work together in groups - be it in the workpace or among friends and family.
8. Always "On"
I am trying to make sample in Asia biggest nation, China - around five years ago, it would have been hard to imagine that Chineses people would be buying cellphones at the rate of nearly 2 million a month. Similarly, today, it is hard to imagine a broadband China? but that is exactly what we are about to see. The next couple years will see Chinese consumers and enterprises enveloped in ubiquitous, high-speed connectivity from multiple sources - wireless, DSL, cable and satellite (hopefully, not only in big major cities). Complement this with WiFi-enabled laptops and smartphones, and the always-on world is at hand. This will necessitate a change in the not just employees work, but also the interactions between enterprises and customers.
In China, China Mobile and China Unicom (well, only 2 big players *sigh*)'s data services have become very popular with laptop users as they provide instant access from anywhere. Year 2008 will see cellphone sales of nearly next billion. Each cellphone makes its owner instantly connected to a worldwide network. As more and more features are packed into cellphones, they are becoming cameras, radios and TVs, gaming devices, and even computers. Smart radios are being embedded into all kinds of devices. Also, microchips embedded in products are creating an 'Internet of things'. Also, a mix of broadband and wireless technologies are providing bandwidth aplenty anywhere and everywhere. From WiFi to WiMax, Zigbee to Ultrawideband, Mobile-Fi to 3G/HSDPA or even 4G(?), there is no space which can remain unwired and no device which can stay unconnected. Backhaul networks on fibre are creating a world where it is now even more economical to carry voice over packet-switched IP networks. It is a world where, according to one of the Skype co-founders, telcos will become software application providers (hahahaha...)
The world of always-on in a natural manifestation of the convergence of various industries - computing, telecom and consumer electronics. It is a world which telecom- and computing-poor infrastructures like in developing countries can leapfrog to, with the right vision and will. Just like South Korea and Japan has done.
9. Advanced Outsourcing
Since 2007, outsourcing is a fundamental trend, and there is little any US government is going to be able to do anything about it. What is clear is that companies globally are relooking at their cost structures and leveraging the commoditisation that has taken place in IT as well as services to focus on what they do best. It is hard to overlook a 30-70% cost savings for certain processes, but that is just the start. What outsourcing also allows is to also fundamentally redesign business processes. This is what companies like IBM, PwC, KPMG, etc; are onow offering the global majors.
Somehow, the goal is not to replace people. The people are where the creativity comes from. But you take the repeatable, standardizeable pieces and put them in software that we deliver either as products or as specialized services. The humans can apply more of their creativity to the piece that only humans can do. The emergence of Web services is the technological base and the lingua franca that makes the idea of a services stack possible. You have to somehow bridge the world of software to the world of business processes.
10. New Emerging Market as Drivers
Overviewing first phase of the technology revolution over the past few decades has touched the lives of the top of the global pyramid of consumers and enterprises. It is only in the past few years that technology has started making its way into the lives of businesses and families at the bottom of the pyramid - in the emerging markets. Because of the lack of legacy and an inherent need, adoption of some technologies has turned out be extremely rapid. Sample that I have read, in China, about a million computers are purchased every month, as compared to 5 million cellphones. Now imagine what would happen if computers were available at the price points of cellphones. We will then see annual computer sales at 20-25 million for many years to come, making China among the top three markets in the world. What does that mean for the global technology players for whom China has so far been a rounding off error in their revenues and profits? Emerging markets, by virtue of their large numbers, have the potential to be the hotbed for disruptive innovations. They are the new markets which can ignite growth at technology companies. But at the same time, they need solutions which need to be at different price-points from what the developed world has been paying. This is both a challenge and an opportunity.
End of the story - in the world of technology, like time, does not stand still. Innovation and change are the only constants. In Asia, place that I am currently staying, have the opportunity to leapfrog by simultaneously leveraging many of the new innovations that the technology industry is making available. The force of digitisation is at once a threat and an opportunity. The choice is for each one of us to make.Next Question - do you?
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Another Flashback
Another copy from my journal in Facebook:
Suddenly, I just got flash in my mind... Take a look at Singapore airport from the air to see how to do it right. (The design is probably not just limited to Singapore itself but most good airports in the world.) There is a terminals area in the centre away from the check-in and arrivals area. The terminals area thus has plenty of parking space for aircraft on all its sides. Every aircraft thus can be connected to an aerobridge. The terminals area itself is connected to the arrivals / departures area with an underground tunnel. The arrivals area is on the lower level, while the departures area is one level above.
Now take a look at the hodge-podge that is Singapore's airport. In the infinite wisdom of the planners, they built common runways but had two separate terminals for domestic and international travelers which for years were connected only by getting on the crowded roads. A couple years or so ago, wisdom dawned and they finally used the inside roads to train passengers back and forth between the two terminals.
The new terminal (terminal 3) that has been created for some of the airlines (replacing the old one) forces every traveller to be carted in a bus and connecting train. There is no provision for any aerobridge. Which era are we willing in? The terminals area and the arrivals / departures area is in one cramped building limiting growth. A significant part of the airport has been overrun by squatters limiting the expansion of runways.
Somehow, we pay a price every day for these kind of inefficiencies in the system. Many of these decisions could have been done right the first time around - and we did not need to be rocket scientists for that. We just had to look at best practices that people have followed before us. But being one of history's oldest civilizations, we think we have all the answers. Luckily, the rest of the world doesn't seem to think so. What do you think?
Suddenly, I just got flash in my mind... Take a look at Singapore airport from the air to see how to do it right. (The design is probably not just limited to Singapore itself but most good airports in the world.) There is a terminals area in the centre away from the check-in and arrivals area. The terminals area thus has plenty of parking space for aircraft on all its sides. Every aircraft thus can be connected to an aerobridge. The terminals area itself is connected to the arrivals / departures area with an underground tunnel. The arrivals area is on the lower level, while the departures area is one level above.
Now take a look at the hodge-podge that is Singapore's airport. In the infinite wisdom of the planners, they built common runways but had two separate terminals for domestic and international travelers which for years were connected only by getting on the crowded roads. A couple years or so ago, wisdom dawned and they finally used the inside roads to train passengers back and forth between the two terminals.
The new terminal (terminal 3) that has been created for some of the airlines (replacing the old one) forces every traveller to be carted in a bus and connecting train. There is no provision for any aerobridge. Which era are we willing in? The terminals area and the arrivals / departures area is in one cramped building limiting growth. A significant part of the airport has been overrun by squatters limiting the expansion of runways.
Somehow, we pay a price every day for these kind of inefficiencies in the system. Many of these decisions could have been done right the first time around - and we did not need to be rocket scientists for that. We just had to look at best practices that people have followed before us. But being one of history's oldest civilizations, we think we have all the answers. Luckily, the rest of the world doesn't seem to think so. What do you think?
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Business Review: Cost of Triple Play
Interesting survey from net that I thought I'd share regarding Triple Play expenditures. They said, application and content service providers are really starting to ramp up their spending. These providers around the globe see triple play services not merely as a means of increasing top-line revenue, but as a means of self-preservation. Network operators are redefining and realigning themselves to be the one-stop shop for all things digital for residential and enterprise subscribers, and they believe triple play services will give them the competitive edge they need to succeed.
From the review, majority of service providers in the study plan to further increase capex spending in the next 12 months on IPTV equipment, broadband CPE, broadband aggregation equipment, and voice over broadband equipment, and they expect revenue growth in all areas of triple play services in the next 12 months. And a big chunk of revenue it is: The average percent of total company revenue from triple play services ranges from around 40% to 50% in 2006 to 2007. Again, they said - with nearly 40% of their capex budgets going to triple play service infrastructure, service providers are sending a clear message that the combination of voice, data, and video services is a long-term differentiator for them, and carriers are demanding complete interoperability, full standards compliance, and an open and flexible architecture from their suppliers to ensure the content and services they provide will work right out of the box and far into the future.
IP voice is a big draw for triple play providers, but it's video that's really the newest, most exciting, and most technically challenging part of triple play services, and IPTV is where all the action is. In fact, most of Asian service provider already offer IPTV, and that one offers it by 2007-2008 (I believed).
My review from findings in this industry (ref.Asia):
- Key drivers for most of service providers deploying triple play services are
1) increased broadband revenue per user
2) new revenue streams
- And most of them rate vendor interoperability a key technical challenge when rolling out triple play services
- The most pressing business challenge triple play service providers face is securing broadcast and on-demand video content; acquiring content is also a challenge
- iTV (interactive TV) is the fastest growing video service offered by service providers, bringing Internet capabilities directly to the TV screen, including instant messaging, shop at home, click to call and click to purchase capabilities, and, most significantly, online gaming services.
Next question: How much it will cost for us?
From the review, majority of service providers in the study plan to further increase capex spending in the next 12 months on IPTV equipment, broadband CPE, broadband aggregation equipment, and voice over broadband equipment, and they expect revenue growth in all areas of triple play services in the next 12 months. And a big chunk of revenue it is: The average percent of total company revenue from triple play services ranges from around 40% to 50% in 2006 to 2007. Again, they said - with nearly 40% of their capex budgets going to triple play service infrastructure, service providers are sending a clear message that the combination of voice, data, and video services is a long-term differentiator for them, and carriers are demanding complete interoperability, full standards compliance, and an open and flexible architecture from their suppliers to ensure the content and services they provide will work right out of the box and far into the future.
IP voice is a big draw for triple play providers, but it's video that's really the newest, most exciting, and most technically challenging part of triple play services, and IPTV is where all the action is. In fact, most of Asian service provider already offer IPTV, and that one offers it by 2007-2008 (I believed).
My review from findings in this industry (ref.Asia):
- Key drivers for most of service providers deploying triple play services are
1) increased broadband revenue per user
2) new revenue streams
- And most of them rate vendor interoperability a key technical challenge when rolling out triple play services
- The most pressing business challenge triple play service providers face is securing broadcast and on-demand video content; acquiring content is also a challenge
- iTV (interactive TV) is the fastest growing video service offered by service providers, bringing Internet capabilities directly to the TV screen, including instant messaging, shop at home, click to call and click to purchase capabilities, and, most significantly, online gaming services.
Next question: How much it will cost for us?
Monday, January 14, 2008
What is Google Android?
Again another fiesta that I have heard about Google from Youtube.com - first, I should point to a funny parody of the supposed Google Android on Youtube, which takes the concept of Google Adsense (ads based on keywords on the webpage) and extends it to speech-recognition of words spoken on the phone to "speak" relevant ads.
Well then, as you know, Google Android aka Dream Phone is a mobile phone platform based on the Linux operating system and developed by the Open Handset Alliance. There have been many rumors about what it will ultimately look like, with several parodies of it circling YouTube, especially this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naUnXplUtrQ
I decided to check out the URL. Sure enough it had two fields - one for entering in your phone number (From) and another field for the destination number (To). Further, the top of the page boldly claims "Google dream phone, android, gphone... whatever its called. Here's a live demo! demo1.0" I was skeptical to say the least, but figured I'd try this anyway.
The preview they gave for speech phrases the demo would recognize often were based in Mountain View, the headquarters of Google, such as "weather for Mountain View". Even asking "what are we doing tonight" was answered with movie times for Mountain View. Trying so hard to associate Google's HQ location made me even more skeptical this was legit. Speech recognition and the ability to conference in two legs of a call is nothing new.
I will say there are plenty of existing technologies that can do what this preview that they just did. Though perhaps this is a legit sample of Google Android. Perhaps Google and their partners just doing something? Who knows? If I had to make a prediction on this 2008, I'd say this is a hoax. But still pretty fascinating to be on a call and then have advertisements or information injected into the call depending on what you say. Be afraid... Be very afraid!
Meaning FREE CALL!!
Well then, as you know, Google Android aka Dream Phone is a mobile phone platform based on the Linux operating system and developed by the Open Handset Alliance. There have been many rumors about what it will ultimately look like, with several parodies of it circling YouTube, especially this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naUnXplUtrQ
I decided to check out the URL. Sure enough it had two fields - one for entering in your phone number (From) and another field for the destination number (To). Further, the top of the page boldly claims "Google dream phone, android, gphone... whatever its called. Here's a live demo! demo1.0" I was skeptical to say the least, but figured I'd try this anyway.
The preview they gave for speech phrases the demo would recognize often were based in Mountain View, the headquarters of Google, such as "weather for Mountain View". Even asking "what are we doing tonight" was answered with movie times for Mountain View. Trying so hard to associate Google's HQ location made me even more skeptical this was legit. Speech recognition and the ability to conference in two legs of a call is nothing new.
I will say there are plenty of existing technologies that can do what this preview that they just did. Though perhaps this is a legit sample of Google Android. Perhaps Google and their partners just doing something? Who knows? If I had to make a prediction on this 2008, I'd say this is a hoax. But still pretty fascinating to be on a call and then have advertisements or information injected into the call depending on what you say. Be afraid... Be very afraid!
Meaning FREE CALL!!
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