Dilemma of Implementation Mobile Number Portability in Indonesia

I just read Indonesia mobile operators review. I saw an interesting note about Mobile Number Portability in Indonesia. It said that Indonesian Telecom regulatory (BRTI) recommended the implementation of nation-wide mobile number portability from 2008 onwards in a phased manner. They have also sought Department of Post and Telecommunication (DPT) nod to review operators for providing and operating mobile number portability solutions, and my question: wondering how?

Mobile number portability offers cellular subscribers the freedom to change service providers while retaining their numbers. The regulator has also forwarded the draft request for proposal to DPT for the review of current operators which will be implementing, controlling and management of mobile number portability. BRTI had earlier set up a steering committee to deliberate issues pertaining to implementation of mobile number portability in Indonesia. Based on the interim report of the committee, the regulator has now come out with draft guidelines for appointment of a central agency. It was this steering committee which helped the regulator put together its interim report on certain key issues for this implementation. And the regulator has also clarified that telcos would have bear the cost of upgrade of their networks for the implementation of multiple number portability.

BRTI also said that in case of prepaid subscribers, they would not be able to avail credit transfer when the number is ported. This implies, pre-paid users will not be able to carry their balance to the new account, but will have to either consume the balance amount or forgo it - this will bring Indonesian Consumer Watch (YLKI) shouted!

From my review, there will be ‘break before make’ arrangement for completion of porting process i.e. connection from donor network to be disconnected first and then connection with recipient network will be made. However, efforts should be made so that break period should not be for more than certain short times...otherwise...

When I was in local operator, market surveys have shown that up to around 50% of all mobile users in Indonesia are unhappy with their operator, and are willing to switch to another service provider if allowed to retain their number. Number portability has so far been introduced in Australia, Korea, Japan, Canada, the US, UK, most of Europe and Pakistan, among other countries. And according to reports, its introduction has been followed by up to 50% subscribers switching operators in some of these countries.

Next question: is it possible in real implementation without sacrifice current subscribers?

How to Make Money in Current Uncertain Year?

2008 market by nature are uncertain. I saw current news headlines make them appear even more uncertain. In these uncertain times, there are heads-I-win-tails-you-lose opportunities available. An alternative to above issue is available in the markets, where the downside is completely eliminated and the full (and sometimes more than the full) upside is captured.

So where is the catch? There is no catch other than taxes. If the markets were to go up, long-term capital gains in equity would be tax free, where as long-term gains in equity options may not be. Further bank interest would be subject to taxation. A question may arise as to why these opportunities are available in the market. The reason is that market participants have very short memories and tend to extrapolate recent events far into the future. Just as demand for earthquake insurance goes up immediately after an earthquake, currently there is huge demand for put options (implied volatility of 40%-50% for the academically inclined). In such a scenario, call options are being sold at ridiculously low levels (implied volatility of 0% !!!), right?

Therefore for someone who is not bothered about paying taxes on the gains, this 2-cents tip would be heads I win, tails you lose.

Next question: Wanna bet?

Again, Mobile Commerce: Trend, Event or Threat?

After seeing growth users of e-Commerce in Asia, now turn a question about mobile commerce in general. While m-commerce vendors remain upbeat that phenomenal growth for the sector is just around the corner (since a while ago), industry analysts caution that corner may be a little farther down the road. Many research and studies over last several years predicted a booming market for m-commerce, but now? My personal comment, however, look for slower-than-expected m-commerce growth. Common issues, such as lack of unified processes and security standards are two factors delaying m-commerce implementation, in mostly everywhere. User apathy toward wireless data services is another.

Anyway reviewing again what is the technology, much like the concept of e-commerce, a type of business conducted 100% electronically through computer networks; m-commerce is a concept of buying and selling goods and services via wireless networks with a mobile device. Mobile payment is a key component of m-commerce and it has several different models, such as premium SMS, WAP based portals, and embedded devices/smart clients.

What I have seen in past experiences, major limitations of m-commerce, as viewed today, are small screens on wireless devices, limited processing power, modest memory, restricted power consumption, poor voice quality, low-speed data transmission, non-ubiquitous coverage, unproven security, scarce bandwidth, and possible health hazards. In light of the fact that m-commerce is just at its inception,the real potential has yet to be visualized, let alone tapped.

Again, nothing that the highly-personalized, context-aware, location sensitive, time-critical applications are the most promising applications in m-commerce, there are many m-commerce applications envisaged to become very widely popular in the world.

In development of next generation of network, like 4G technology with more security, higher speeds, higher capacity, lower costs, and more intelligent infrastructures and devices will help realize m-commerce applications. With improved wireless security and privacy through data encryption and user education, on the one hand, and with the wide deployment of 4G technology, on the other hand, it isanticipated that m-commerce will, inescapably, become themost dominant method of conducting business transactions.

Next question: How to make this moving faster?

Quantum Leap? Going Ahead to 4G Development

Next wave of new generation of technology never stop for development -- basically what is 4G, ref to many teminology reviews, this technology suppose coming to market between 2008 and 2010 (which is NOW?). This technology provide TV in real time, and video download at high speed. Also, it might support automatic roaming to non-mobile network - such as WiFi and satellite.

Since I am in China currently -- just want to add some comment about China’s telecom sector, which has longed for its own, independent set of intellectual property rights for industry standards, is pinning its hopes on the success of future R&D for 4G standards. But they’ve had similar hopes for years.

Back dated around 2001, for example, an effort geared toward 4G project. Main participants at the time included some universuties (supported by government, off course) and variant network technology vendors (ie. Huawei, ZTE, Datang Technologies etc). According to its public report, was aimed at overseeing China’s 4G research and completing the standardization through a three-step strategy, with pre-commercialization set for 2010. And reviewing developed technical roadmap, they said a TD version of LTE was to be presented at the end of 2007 (but I haven't found any articles about that yet), a TD-LTE test network was to be set up by 2009, and LTE was to cover hotspots by 2010.

Somehow, nowhere is this seen more clearly than in mobile data services. The emergence of 3G High Speed Packet Access (HSPA), and soon Evolved HSPA (?) and next-generation standard LTE (a.k.a. 4G) access, that is enabling an entire new class of mobile broadband services and generating traffic volumes that are unsustainable using the classic hierarchical network architectures originally designed for mobile voice and low-speed data.

Next question: --- again, is it cheap?

Where is the Money Flow?

Expert people says; Population + Rapid Growth = Global Investing In Asia!

Well...somehow, big story is in Asia, which has both a huge population -- around almost 3 billion people in countries that are rapidly enriching themselves, or are already rich, and rapid productivity growth. And this wasn’t always true in the past. With Europe growing slowly, Japan slowed in recession since 1990 and the rest of Asia still small, the past more than 10 years have been pretty good for investors in United States, which even managed to slightly increase its share of the world economy.

Again, being optimistic -- the future will be much, much different...

After read financial news - another wakeup call says: "Wall Street is well aware of the global growth to come. Indeed, they’ve known about it for years, and their clients have been profiting nicely at every step along the way. But “retail investors” - those who lack a $10 million portfolio - have been left in the dark. And now, with the real global growth still to come, those uninformed retail investors are going to get left in the dust".

My comment for this, well, it doesn’t have to be that way! Needless to say, now that we’re “in” on the global investing “secret,” and we have an immense competitive advantage over investors who are still in the dark. But even that’s not enough.  For me, simply -- I will follow the money, no matter where in the world it travels and no matter what form it takes.

Next question: -- same as this topic: BUT where is the money flow?

Amazing e-Commerce Business in China

I just reviewing some online commerce website in China and give me an idea to write down a new topic in here. Anyway, ref to China Internet Research Centre (in Beijing?) there are 55 Million of China’s Internet users shopped online last year for a total turnover of around RMB60 Billion (amazing!). Also some news said that by 2011, online spending will hit around RMB400 Billion as more of China’s Internet users turn to online shopping. Although, I have read that level of online spending remains modest: last year it was about RMB1,000 last year per consumer, or around 0.6% of total retail spending in China.

Somehow, growth in its e-commerce has lagged due to consumer concerns about reliable online payment methods and counterfeit goods. Nevertheless improvements in technology have meant that online payment systems are now safer and the challenge for Internet firms is to win over consumers’ confidence.

Next question: How?

I just try to review that another challenge of Internet companies in China face is the small number of credit card users, with around 75 million credit cards (ref State China Banking Media report) in circulation by the end of 2007. Although credit cards are becoming more popular (they even try me, although I am foreigner in here), their still low penetration rates along with quality controls and infrastructure issues explain why online sales in China last year made up little more than around 6% of that in United States.

Sample that I have seen showing, to overcome this issue, online business-to-business portal like Alibaba has been relatively successful with "Alipay", a system which allows users to pay in escrow only once the product has been received (they just like a virtual BANK!)

Next question: Central Bank policies?

Also, Taobao.com, a subsidiary of online portal Alibaba.com, in which Yahoo! invested around 1 Billion dollars in 2005, is China’s dominant Internet retailer, somehow accounting for around 80% of the country’s e-commerce turnover (vs Amazon or eBay?). This site had sales of around RMB40 Billion in 2007; most of it in consumer-to-consumer transactions, but its profitability remains in question as it does not charge buyer or seller a transaction fee.

Next question: Any service fees regarding debt issues?

After IPTV now China enters mobile-TV

Seeing China launched their 3G for retail customers, its very interesting to see what will be their product and services, especially for incoming Global event like Olympic in August 2008. From my personal review as telecom companies and broadcasters around the globe rush to offer television services over mobile phones, China is taking steps to ensure that its domestic players don't miss out on the potentially massive market (nationwide and soon regional market).

From news, I have seen that China broadcast authorities announced they will launch their own technology standard for mobile TV. Somehow, Chinese standard is still in early stages of development (wondering?). In here, regulators didn't suggest the domestic standard would be the only one allowed in China. But the existence of a Chinese standard could ratchet up competition between companies in the scramble to develop a dominant global standard for mobile TV. Nokia, SonyEricsson and Samsung, for example, have already invested heavily in deploying mobile-TV services in other parts of the world.

I just want to quote an email from my friend in IDC says "China government wants to spin off as much homegrown technology as possible."

Again, China has tried this homegrown approach to technology standards before. It has been working for several years to develop its own standard for so-called third-generation wireless networks -- the high-speed networks used to deliver games, video clips and other data services to mobile phones. But with alternative 3G approaches advancing more quickly in other countries, Chinese standard -- not yet launched commercially -- isn't the only one being developed in China. Mobile operators and broadcasters world-wide are trying to settle on the technology and business models behind providing video content on cellphones. And amazingly, China is the world's largest mobile phone market, and analysts think its consumers may be particularly receptive to mobile-TV services, since few have existing pay-TV subscriptions, and because cellphone services beyond voice are extremely popular in China.

As part of my experiences, one option for delivering video to mobile phone is to stream or download video clips over advanced 2.5G and 3G networks. And personally, I have read and seen, like Shanghai Media Group has begun trials providing its content to cellphones with this technology. Another option is to broadcast video with a technology that works the way digital radio does.

South Korea was the first country to roll out such a service, since 2005 (may be before?), using satellite and terrestrial versions of a Samsung Electronics-backed system called Digital Media Broadcasting. In US, a company like Qualcomm Inc. has launched a proprietary mobile-TV service called MediaFLO. In Europe and Asia, an industry group that includes Nokia has been touting a standard called DVB-H. More than 50 million DVB-H phones are expected to be sold globally by 2010, ref from Research firm Informa.

And Chinese standard (as I have heard from my friend in Gartner), which bears the ungainly name GY/T220.1-2006, could help local telecom providers, such as China Mobile and China Netcom, by reducing the amount of money they have to pay in royalty and intellectual-property fees to foreign companies. And this standarization have feedback from both Nokia and Motorola that the announcement would have little impact on their plans to expand mobile-TV services in China and the rest of the world.

Next question: Who want to watch TV in mobile phone?