After reading news about Bill Gates and his idea about next generation of digital world, again, really open my eyes to think more - about - what is terminology of "an idea"? Well, you can find out yourself from internet, for sure! Anyway, an idea of my thought experiment was to think on how new technologies can help build better and more interactive content experiences, and at the same time also provide potential advertisers with targeted segments. Many times our legacy prevents us from thinking out of the box. Our habits change much slower than the relentless march of technology. And at the same time, it is the technological innovations which create new opportunities. The first ten years of internet in our lives have been a source of great value. May be next five will probably see even more innovation as content producers start seeing the power of the changes and extensions in internet's infrastructure.
In Asia, we have an opportunity to leapfrog and embrace much of this change. As the foundation of low-cost access devices (be it cheaper computers, thin clients, cellphones, TVs) leverage the communications base that is being built, any need will be for a new generation of services which go beyond the content that is in prevalence today. This is the opportunity for any Asian entrepreneurs (may) envision new services and applications for next hundred billion internet users.
Next question: are you?
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Friday, May 2, 2008
Oil vs USD
After seeing oil prices leap to USD 116 per-barrel, and fluctuation that happened in forex index – really open my eyes – what the hell is going on? Anyway, correlations tell me very little about what is driving what. Whether, USD driving oil prices, or is it oil driving USD – and impact other forex?
The first thing to note is that some of the correlation between oil prices (which denominated in USD) and USD itself, has to do with accounting. And this ‘accounting correlation’ becomes clearer if (somehow) I think about this scenario: Assume that the global oil price were stable against a basket of global currencies (GDP weighted or weighted according to where oil is produced). In that situation, if EUR/USD appreciates, that would also means that the price of oil in USD terms would go up (to counter the effect of lower oil prices in EUR terms), and this would generate an ‘accounting correlation’ between EUR/USD and oil prices denominated in USD terms. But this ‘accounting correlation’ is hardly all there is to it. Honestly, I am confused as well …
All bankers and analyst told, there are good reasons to think that a good portion of the causality in the oil vs USD correlation is running from oil price moves to USD particularly in relation to the USD/Europe.
Next question: how about Asian index? (RMB, YEN, SGD, etc)
The first thing to note is that some of the correlation between oil prices (which denominated in USD) and USD itself, has to do with accounting. And this ‘accounting correlation’ becomes clearer if (somehow) I think about this scenario: Assume that the global oil price were stable against a basket of global currencies (GDP weighted or weighted according to where oil is produced). In that situation, if EUR/USD appreciates, that would also means that the price of oil in USD terms would go up (to counter the effect of lower oil prices in EUR terms), and this would generate an ‘accounting correlation’ between EUR/USD and oil prices denominated in USD terms. But this ‘accounting correlation’ is hardly all there is to it. Honestly, I am confused as well …
All bankers and analyst told, there are good reasons to think that a good portion of the causality in the oil vs USD correlation is running from oil price moves to USD particularly in relation to the USD/Europe.
Next question: how about Asian index? (RMB, YEN, SGD, etc)
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Dilemma of Implementation Mobile Number Portability in Indonesia
I just read Indonesia mobile operators review. I saw an interesting note about Mobile Number Portability in Indonesia. It said that Indonesian Telecom regulatory (BRTI) recommended the implementation of nation-wide mobile number portability from 2008 onwards in a phased manner. They have also sought Department of Post and Telecommunication (DPT) nod to review operators for providing and operating mobile number portability solutions, and my question: wondering how?
Mobile number portability offers cellular subscribers the freedom to change service providers while retaining their numbers. The regulator has also forwarded the draft request for proposal to DPT for the review of current operators which will be implementing, controlling and management of mobile number portability. BRTI had earlier set up a steering committee to deliberate issues pertaining to implementation of mobile number portability in Indonesia. Based on the interim report of the committee, the regulator has now come out with draft guidelines for appointment of a central agency. It was this steering committee which helped the regulator put together its interim report on certain key issues for this implementation. And the regulator has also clarified that telcos would have bear the cost of upgrade of their networks for the implementation of multiple number portability.
BRTI also said that in case of prepaid subscribers, they would not be able to avail credit transfer when the number is ported. This implies, pre-paid users will not be able to carry their balance to the new account, but will have to either consume the balance amount or forgo it - this will bring Indonesian Consumer Watch (YLKI) shouted!
From my review, there will be ‘break before make’ arrangement for completion of porting process i.e. connection from donor network to be disconnected first and then connection with recipient network will be made. However, efforts should be made so that break period should not be for more than certain short times...otherwise...
When I was in local operator, market surveys have shown that up to around 50% of all mobile users in Indonesia are unhappy with their operator, and are willing to switch to another service provider if allowed to retain their number. Number portability has so far been introduced in Australia, Korea, Japan, Canada, the US, UK, most of Europe and Pakistan, among other countries. And according to reports, its introduction has been followed by up to 50% subscribers switching operators in some of these countries.
Next question: is it possible in real implementation without sacrifice current subscribers?
Mobile number portability offers cellular subscribers the freedom to change service providers while retaining their numbers. The regulator has also forwarded the draft request for proposal to DPT for the review of current operators which will be implementing, controlling and management of mobile number portability. BRTI had earlier set up a steering committee to deliberate issues pertaining to implementation of mobile number portability in Indonesia. Based on the interim report of the committee, the regulator has now come out with draft guidelines for appointment of a central agency. It was this steering committee which helped the regulator put together its interim report on certain key issues for this implementation. And the regulator has also clarified that telcos would have bear the cost of upgrade of their networks for the implementation of multiple number portability.
BRTI also said that in case of prepaid subscribers, they would not be able to avail credit transfer when the number is ported. This implies, pre-paid users will not be able to carry their balance to the new account, but will have to either consume the balance amount or forgo it - this will bring Indonesian Consumer Watch (YLKI) shouted!
From my review, there will be ‘break before make’ arrangement for completion of porting process i.e. connection from donor network to be disconnected first and then connection with recipient network will be made. However, efforts should be made so that break period should not be for more than certain short times...otherwise...
When I was in local operator, market surveys have shown that up to around 50% of all mobile users in Indonesia are unhappy with their operator, and are willing to switch to another service provider if allowed to retain their number. Number portability has so far been introduced in Australia, Korea, Japan, Canada, the US, UK, most of Europe and Pakistan, among other countries. And according to reports, its introduction has been followed by up to 50% subscribers switching operators in some of these countries.
Next question: is it possible in real implementation without sacrifice current subscribers?
How to Make Money in Current Uncertain Year?
2008 market by nature are uncertain. I saw current news headlines make them appear even more uncertain. In these uncertain times, there are heads-I-win-tails-you-lose opportunities available. An alternative to above issue is available in the markets, where the downside is completely eliminated and the full (and sometimes more than the full) upside is captured.
So where is the catch? There is no catch other than taxes. If the markets were to go up, long-term capital gains in equity would be tax free, where as long-term gains in equity options may not be. Further bank interest would be subject to taxation. A question may arise as to why these opportunities are available in the market. The reason is that market participants have very short memories and tend to extrapolate recent events far into the future. Just as demand for earthquake insurance goes up immediately after an earthquake, currently there is huge demand for put options (implied volatility of 40%-50% for the academically inclined). In such a scenario, call options are being sold at ridiculously low levels (implied volatility of 0% !!!), right?
Therefore for someone who is not bothered about paying taxes on the gains, this 2-cents tip would be heads I win, tails you lose.
Next question: Wanna bet?
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Again, Mobile Commerce: Trend, Event or Threat?
After seeing growth users of e-Commerce in Asia, now turn a question about mobile commerce in general. While m-commerce vendors remain upbeat that phenomenal growth for the sector is just around the corner (since a while ago), industry analysts caution that corner may be a little farther down the road. Many research and studies over last several years predicted a booming market for m-commerce, but now? My personal comment, however, look for slower-than-expected m-commerce growth. Common issues, such as lack of unified processes and security standards are two factors delaying m-commerce implementation, in mostly everywhere. User apathy toward wireless data services is another.
Anyway reviewing again what is the technology, much like the concept of e-commerce, a type of business conducted 100% electronically through computer networks; m-commerce is a concept of buying and selling goods and services via wireless networks with a mobile device. Mobile payment is a key component of m-commerce and it has several different models, such as premium SMS, WAP based portals, and embedded devices/smart clients.
What I have seen in past experiences, major limitations of m-commerce, as viewed today, are small screens on wireless devices, limited processing power, modest memory, restricted power consumption, poor voice quality, low-speed data transmission, non-ubiquitous coverage, unproven security, scarce bandwidth, and possible health hazards. In light of the fact that m-commerce is just at its inception,the real potential has yet to be visualized, let alone tapped.
Again, nothing that the highly-personalized, context-aware, location sensitive, time-critical applications are the most promising applications in m-commerce, there are many m-commerce applications envisaged to become very widely popular in the world.
In development of next generation of network, like 4G technology with more security, higher speeds, higher capacity, lower costs, and more intelligent infrastructures and devices will help realize m-commerce applications. With improved wireless security and privacy through data encryption and user education, on the one hand, and with the wide deployment of 4G technology, on the other hand, it isanticipated that m-commerce will, inescapably, become themost dominant method of conducting business transactions.
Next question: How to make this moving faster?
Anyway reviewing again what is the technology, much like the concept of e-commerce, a type of business conducted 100% electronically through computer networks; m-commerce is a concept of buying and selling goods and services via wireless networks with a mobile device. Mobile payment is a key component of m-commerce and it has several different models, such as premium SMS, WAP based portals, and embedded devices/smart clients.
What I have seen in past experiences, major limitations of m-commerce, as viewed today, are small screens on wireless devices, limited processing power, modest memory, restricted power consumption, poor voice quality, low-speed data transmission, non-ubiquitous coverage, unproven security, scarce bandwidth, and possible health hazards. In light of the fact that m-commerce is just at its inception,the real potential has yet to be visualized, let alone tapped.
Again, nothing that the highly-personalized, context-aware, location sensitive, time-critical applications are the most promising applications in m-commerce, there are many m-commerce applications envisaged to become very widely popular in the world.
In development of next generation of network, like 4G technology with more security, higher speeds, higher capacity, lower costs, and more intelligent infrastructures and devices will help realize m-commerce applications. With improved wireless security and privacy through data encryption and user education, on the one hand, and with the wide deployment of 4G technology, on the other hand, it isanticipated that m-commerce will, inescapably, become themost dominant method of conducting business transactions.
Next question: How to make this moving faster?
Quantum Leap? Going Ahead to 4G Development
Next wave of new generation of technology never stop for development -- basically what is 4G, ref to many teminology reviews, this technology suppose coming to market between 2008 and 2010 (which is NOW?). This technology provide TV in real time, and video download at high speed. Also, it might support automatic roaming to non-mobile network - such as WiFi and satellite.
Since I am in China currently -- just want to add some comment about China’s telecom sector, which has longed for its own, independent set of intellectual property rights for industry standards, is pinning its hopes on the success of future R&D for 4G standards. But they’ve had similar hopes for years.
Back dated around 2001, for example, an effort geared toward 4G project. Main participants at the time included some universuties (supported by government, off course) and variant network technology vendors (ie. Huawei, ZTE, Datang Technologies etc). According to its public report, was aimed at overseeing China’s 4G research and completing the standardization through a three-step strategy, with pre-commercialization set for 2010. And reviewing developed technical roadmap, they said a TD version of LTE was to be presented at the end of 2007 (but I haven't found any articles about that yet), a TD-LTE test network was to be set up by 2009, and LTE was to cover hotspots by 2010.
Somehow, nowhere is this seen more clearly than in mobile data services. The emergence of 3G High Speed Packet Access (HSPA), and soon Evolved HSPA (?) and next-generation standard LTE (a.k.a. 4G) access, that is enabling an entire new class of mobile broadband services and generating traffic volumes that are unsustainable using the classic hierarchical network architectures originally designed for mobile voice and low-speed data.
Next question: --- again, is it cheap?
Since I am in China currently -- just want to add some comment about China’s telecom sector, which has longed for its own, independent set of intellectual property rights for industry standards, is pinning its hopes on the success of future R&D for 4G standards. But they’ve had similar hopes for years.
Back dated around 2001, for example, an effort geared toward 4G project. Main participants at the time included some universuties (supported by government, off course) and variant network technology vendors (ie. Huawei, ZTE, Datang Technologies etc). According to its public report, was aimed at overseeing China’s 4G research and completing the standardization through a three-step strategy, with pre-commercialization set for 2010. And reviewing developed technical roadmap, they said a TD version of LTE was to be presented at the end of 2007 (but I haven't found any articles about that yet), a TD-LTE test network was to be set up by 2009, and LTE was to cover hotspots by 2010.
Somehow, nowhere is this seen more clearly than in mobile data services. The emergence of 3G High Speed Packet Access (HSPA), and soon Evolved HSPA (?) and next-generation standard LTE (a.k.a. 4G) access, that is enabling an entire new class of mobile broadband services and generating traffic volumes that are unsustainable using the classic hierarchical network architectures originally designed for mobile voice and low-speed data.
Next question: --- again, is it cheap?
Monday, April 21, 2008
Where is the Money Flow?
Expert people says; Population + Rapid Growth = Global Investing In Asia!
Well...somehow, big story is in Asia, which has both a huge population -- around almost 3 billion people in countries that are rapidly enriching themselves, or are already rich, and rapid productivity growth. And this wasn’t always true in the past. With Europe growing slowly, Japan slowed in recession since 1990 and the rest of Asia still small, the past more than 10 years have been pretty good for investors in United States, which even managed to slightly increase its share of the world economy.
Again, being optimistic -- the future will be much, much different...
After read financial news - another wakeup call says: "Wall Street is well aware of the global growth to come. Indeed, they’ve known about it for years, and their clients have been profiting nicely at every step along the way. But “retail investors” - those who lack a $10 million portfolio - have been left in the dark. And now, with the real global growth still to come, those uninformed retail investors are going to get left in the dust".
My comment for this, well, it doesn’t have to be that way! Needless to say, now that we’re “in” on the global investing “secret,” and we have an immense competitive advantage over investors who are still in the dark. But even that’s not enough. For me, simply -- I will follow the money, no matter where in the world it travels and no matter what form it takes.
Next question: -- same as this topic: BUT where is the money flow?
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