Honestly, role of any salesman is highly demanding (and totally sensitive task that I always trying to avoid, although I couldn't). Somehow, company's management demands such high revenue growth rate - that everyday of work starts to look like running a championship race. At the same time, the accountants in the finance department are reluctant to increase any expenses thus curtailing potential investments needed to achieve the required sales targets. This creates a situation where it appears that its almost impossible to succeed in sales - but there will be few who always seem to achieve their targets with ease. These are people who are known as "Born Salesmen" - but in reality a good salesman is a good drill master who knows the sales drill down to the last details - which can be learnt.... but how?
Next question: Ask yourself when you’ve been persuaded by a good salesman and think about what happened. Were they honest?
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Somehow, You Shouldn't Need An MBA to Be Expert About Business
Again seeing global economy, it could be argued that although inflation was not appearing in CPI figures, it was already visible in asset markets as artworks, equities, bonds and property all performed well from 2003 to 2006. Central bank monetary policy remained benevolent with tentative rate hikes since policy markers targeted growth rather than the latent inflationary pressure. Paradoxically, Asian central banks kept interest rates extremely low in real terms given their mercantilist backgrounds, and stoked inflationary pressure by running food and fuel subsidies at home.
Current macro economy is now facing the prospect of the triple shock of an extended credit crunch, high inflation and slowing growth; the very three objectives central bank policy is designed to overcome. Meanwhile asset prices are under pressure from not only the unwinding of the goldilocks period as central banks continue to lift short interest rates but also from rising long-term rates as governments see a diminishing of their current account surpluses due to high oil prices and a reduction in capital flows due to increased risk aversion and deleveraging.
Next question: Do you optimistic for all of this?
Current macro economy is now facing the prospect of the triple shock of an extended credit crunch, high inflation and slowing growth; the very three objectives central bank policy is designed to overcome. Meanwhile asset prices are under pressure from not only the unwinding of the goldilocks period as central banks continue to lift short interest rates but also from rising long-term rates as governments see a diminishing of their current account surpluses due to high oil prices and a reduction in capital flows due to increased risk aversion and deleveraging.
Next question: Do you optimistic for all of this?
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Seeing Indonesia from Outside
This is my personal comment about Indonesia, with inflation rising above 10% (and likely to go to 15% as fuel price subsidies are reduced), this is one of the riskier inflation-prone markets in the region, in my view. Central bank reacted by raising its reference rate to 8.5%, but it will have to do considerably more to bring down excess demand. With both
presidential and parliamentary elections due next year, I think it will find it politically difficult to act decisively.
For longer term, I can see the attractions of this market. GDP appears to be growing fairly sustainably at around 6%. The commodity-based economy throws up a number of stocks that stand to do well as long as the global resources boom continues. Valuations are not stretched (as they were last summer), with PE now down to 12x.
Next question: Until the inflation risk is under control, what can we do in Indonesia?
presidential and parliamentary elections due next year, I think it will find it politically difficult to act decisively.
For longer term, I can see the attractions of this market. GDP appears to be growing fairly sustainably at around 6%. The commodity-based economy throws up a number of stocks that stand to do well as long as the global resources boom continues. Valuations are not stretched (as they were last summer), with PE now down to 12x.
Next question: Until the inflation risk is under control, what can we do in Indonesia?
Nowhere to Hide!
Current Asian stock markets having experienced their worst six months since 2000, it is tempting to think things cannot get much worse. But, while a summer rally is likely, I just think the bear market is far from over. Too many headwinds are pushing Asia back: rising inflation, the risk of the Fed tightening, political upheaval, and continued foreign selling. The next set of worries may come from the corporate sector: margin pressure and higher interest rates mean analysts’ forecasts of 6% EPS growth this year and (especially) 15% in 2009 look pie-in-the-sky. I see markets continuing to drift off until early 2009 at least... or more? *sigh*
Next question: Is there no sunshine after the rain?
Next question: Is there no sunshine after the rain?
Monday, July 7, 2008
Global Balance?
Well, current focus switches to inflation From news, Fed's success in stabilising the financial situation has let the markets think that the massive growth risks have receded and that inflation is the next monster on the horizon. From my view, its continuing surge in commodity prices has compounded these inflation concerns. World inflation should rise to around 5% in 2008 after 4.2% in 2007.
I think, current original real economy event that triggered the liquidity crisis, like US housing collapse, has not yet run its course. Moreover, just because financial market stabilisation has been achieved does not mean the same is true for the global real economy. In Asia, the effect of the continuing US consumer slowdown will be felt with increasing force.
In China - from news I have heard that, the return of "hot money" flows, as risk aversion and financial stresses related to the subprime crisis fade, appears to have dulled the authorities’ appetite for a faster pace of yuan appreciation. A key risk would be that the panic hoarding of rice may drive a spike in inflation which would be very hard to control.
Next question: Wondering, how much capital was transferred between oil or energy consuming countries and the producing countries due to the surge in energy prices? *errrrr.... some countries become rich and richer - vice versa*
I think, current original real economy event that triggered the liquidity crisis, like US housing collapse, has not yet run its course. Moreover, just because financial market stabilisation has been achieved does not mean the same is true for the global real economy. In Asia, the effect of the continuing US consumer slowdown will be felt with increasing force.
In China - from news I have heard that, the return of "hot money" flows, as risk aversion and financial stresses related to the subprime crisis fade, appears to have dulled the authorities’ appetite for a faster pace of yuan appreciation. A key risk would be that the panic hoarding of rice may drive a spike in inflation which would be very hard to control.
Next question: Wondering, how much capital was transferred between oil or energy consuming countries and the producing countries due to the surge in energy prices? *errrrr.... some countries become rich and richer - vice versa*
Saturday, July 5, 2008
China Telecom Industry Review
Executive Summary
Continuing my early review about 3G Global Development, for past 2 months - I have begun to review significant growth after restructuring in China’s telecom industry. Current five service-providers have now been reduced to three full-service telecom service-providers. Birth of these providers suggests that there will be a new market-share pattern in China’s telecom industry. Which company gets the bigger piece of the pie and which gets the smaller will depend on the customers’ choice of service provider in China’s ‘3G’ era. In view of the over 1.4 Billion populations and low penetration, I believe there is ample room in the market for every operator to make a differentiating position and restore growth momentum in the long run.
From news, I have seen that Chinese Government would impose asymmetric regulations on dominant market players for 2 to 3 years to help new entrants catch up. This would prompt the three providers to reposition themselves through differentiation in market, services and/or customers. As the Government has been intending to stimulate competition instead of creating a price war, this would help in cultivating a healthy and sustainable industry development going forward.
China Mobile
I have seen China Mobile, current market share leader, faces development constraints. The mobile phone service provider will inevitably face fierce price wars and high capital expenditure in the next 2 years. The best way to determine which operator acquires the most market share will be by looking at customer flows. Therefore, new additional subscriber numbers will be a good indicator as to which of the three is building the most successful operation going forward. Again, I believed China Mobile should be able to make differentiation in the rural mobile market and high-end individual mobile users market in urban areas.
China Unicom
Another big player, new China Unicom is better than new China Telecom. After restructuring, China Mobile’s business development will be constrained in coming years due to the maturity of TD-SCDMA technology and the possible influence of some un-favorable regulatory policies. My review on the product front, its upgraded CDMA 3G version will be no better than WCDMA. New Unicom will focus on developing G-net after shedding the burden of C-net. I believe that the upgraded WCDMA has the strongest array of products and will be the top choice of China 3G customers in the future.
Additionally, I have heard from news (Financial Times) that Telefonica plans to buy 10% stake to become new strategic shareholder for China Unicom. Currently, Telefonica owns around 5% stake in Netcom; post-merger it would be about 3% of the enlarged China Unicom. In my view, the latest development is positive for China Unicom, at least from a technical standpoint, as any purchase in the open market would support China Unicom’s share price. Arguably, from a fundamental standpoint, Telefonica’s more serious involvement could help the new China Unicom in a number of areas including: 1) lower costs in equipment purchases,
2) more technical know-how and
3) commercial know-how in 3G planning and marketing.
China Netcom
I have my limitation to review China Netcom, just my key concerns on China Netcom are long-term competitiveness in a three player market. For comparison, China Mobile - it faces the largest and strongest mobile operator as above note, while China Telecom has a fixed line footprint twice the size of China Netcom. Facing the fact that fundamentally on the core business than China Telecom — given China Netcom operates in provinces with relatively lower affordability, I expect the impact from mobile substitution, lower mobile tariffs, etc, to be more material than for China Telecom.
Overall Review for Telecom Industry in China
I believe it will be a strong mobile usage growth continues in following year although it will not as fast as past years. From many reviews it says that China added 87 million mobile subscribers in 2007; mobile penetration just hit around 40% with 530 Million mobile subscribers by the year end.
From this point, I estimate China will add an additional around 180 Million subscribers in the next two years with the total of mobile subscribers approaching 700 Million by the end of 2009 and mobile penetration of around 52%. With industry restructuring allowing fixed line operators to participate in mobile operation would accelerate this process.
What next: South Asia Round-up?
Continuing my early review about 3G Global Development, for past 2 months - I have begun to review significant growth after restructuring in China’s telecom industry. Current five service-providers have now been reduced to three full-service telecom service-providers. Birth of these providers suggests that there will be a new market-share pattern in China’s telecom industry. Which company gets the bigger piece of the pie and which gets the smaller will depend on the customers’ choice of service provider in China’s ‘3G’ era. In view of the over 1.4 Billion populations and low penetration, I believe there is ample room in the market for every operator to make a differentiating position and restore growth momentum in the long run.
From news, I have seen that Chinese Government would impose asymmetric regulations on dominant market players for 2 to 3 years to help new entrants catch up. This would prompt the three providers to reposition themselves through differentiation in market, services and/or customers. As the Government has been intending to stimulate competition instead of creating a price war, this would help in cultivating a healthy and sustainable industry development going forward.
China Mobile
I have seen China Mobile, current market share leader, faces development constraints. The mobile phone service provider will inevitably face fierce price wars and high capital expenditure in the next 2 years. The best way to determine which operator acquires the most market share will be by looking at customer flows. Therefore, new additional subscriber numbers will be a good indicator as to which of the three is building the most successful operation going forward. Again, I believed China Mobile should be able to make differentiation in the rural mobile market and high-end individual mobile users market in urban areas.
China Unicom
Another big player, new China Unicom is better than new China Telecom. After restructuring, China Mobile’s business development will be constrained in coming years due to the maturity of TD-SCDMA technology and the possible influence of some un-favorable regulatory policies. My review on the product front, its upgraded CDMA 3G version will be no better than WCDMA. New Unicom will focus on developing G-net after shedding the burden of C-net. I believe that the upgraded WCDMA has the strongest array of products and will be the top choice of China 3G customers in the future.
Additionally, I have heard from news (Financial Times) that Telefonica plans to buy 10% stake to become new strategic shareholder for China Unicom. Currently, Telefonica owns around 5% stake in Netcom; post-merger it would be about 3% of the enlarged China Unicom. In my view, the latest development is positive for China Unicom, at least from a technical standpoint, as any purchase in the open market would support China Unicom’s share price. Arguably, from a fundamental standpoint, Telefonica’s more serious involvement could help the new China Unicom in a number of areas including: 1) lower costs in equipment purchases,
2) more technical know-how and
3) commercial know-how in 3G planning and marketing.
China Netcom
I have my limitation to review China Netcom, just my key concerns on China Netcom are long-term competitiveness in a three player market. For comparison, China Mobile - it faces the largest and strongest mobile operator as above note, while China Telecom has a fixed line footprint twice the size of China Netcom. Facing the fact that fundamentally on the core business than China Telecom — given China Netcom operates in provinces with relatively lower affordability, I expect the impact from mobile substitution, lower mobile tariffs, etc, to be more material than for China Telecom.
Overall Review for Telecom Industry in China
I believe it will be a strong mobile usage growth continues in following year although it will not as fast as past years. From many reviews it says that China added 87 million mobile subscribers in 2007; mobile penetration just hit around 40% with 530 Million mobile subscribers by the year end.
From this point, I estimate China will add an additional around 180 Million subscribers in the next two years with the total of mobile subscribers approaching 700 Million by the end of 2009 and mobile penetration of around 52%. With industry restructuring allowing fixed line operators to participate in mobile operation would accelerate this process.
What next: South Asia Round-up?
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Asia Pacific Telecommunication Round-up
Based on personal view, I still favour the Asian telecoms industry, given low economic sensitivity, continued growth in emerging and certain developed markets, and healthy finances. The future for mature telecoms markets is quad-play strategy. In less developed countries, it is better to service the different parts of the telecoms market individually. I believe the best time for restructuring has passed, due to depressed mobile tariffs and the lack of a pro-competition environment (China). Wireless operators’ earnings should rebound from here, driven by lower capex, ARPU improvements and cost-cutting (Korea). Somehow, I saw Singapore as an ideal market for fibre-to-thepremises; an FTTP-based NBN project can yield high positive NPV (Singapore).
Rough Asia-Pacific Telecoms round-up - again I still favour the Asian telecoms sector, given low economic sensitivity, growth not only in emerging markets but also in developed markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, and strong finances. I am recommending a telecoms bucket that reflects the sector’s attractions. This originally included SK Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, PCCW, DiGi, Telekom Malaysia, SingTel and StarHub. Also, may be DTAC in Thailand. I think DTAC has a good chance of winning a 3G licence by mid-2009; it is performing well operationally, and should deliver strong profit growth this year (ref. to their performance)
For China’s restructuring and other developments - current key story so far in 2Q is the announcement of the long-awaited restructuring of China’s telecoms market. I see this as too little, too late; and it will be very hard to reverse China Mobile’s huge market dominance. In Southeast Asia, I have saw forecasts for Telekom Malaysia, the new pure fixed-line operator, plus reports on TM International, the new pure mobile operator.
Anyway...what next?
Rough Asia-Pacific Telecoms round-up - again I still favour the Asian telecoms sector, given low economic sensitivity, growth not only in emerging markets but also in developed markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, and strong finances. I am recommending a telecoms bucket that reflects the sector’s attractions. This originally included SK Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, PCCW, DiGi, Telekom Malaysia, SingTel and StarHub. Also, may be DTAC in Thailand. I think DTAC has a good chance of winning a 3G licence by mid-2009; it is performing well operationally, and should deliver strong profit growth this year (ref. to their performance)
For China’s restructuring and other developments - current key story so far in 2Q is the announcement of the long-awaited restructuring of China’s telecoms market. I see this as too little, too late; and it will be very hard to reverse China Mobile’s huge market dominance. In Southeast Asia, I have saw forecasts for Telekom Malaysia, the new pure fixed-line operator, plus reports on TM International, the new pure mobile operator.
Anyway...what next?
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