Sociopathic Checklist

Just wondering, after reading a health magazine -- here is a list from a professional diagnostic about sociopathic disturbances. Sociopathy is very rare. Many proplr exhibit one or two of these symptoms on occasion, but in an innocent or testing way. Any cluster or habitual set of them should send you looking for professional help immediately.

-Talks about things that are scary or disgusting

-bullies children (hits, bites, shoves…)

-has no child friends; perhaps a sadistic imaginary friend

-Swears

-hurts animals on purpose

-ritually and intentionally disfigures dolls/figures

-has strange habits (i.e. tries to strangle self, repetitively draws strange symbols) is violent towards caregivers

-threatens

-has an eerie sense of humor/happiness is precocious about destructive themes, strategies

-concocts pretend plan to kill parents/sibling, set something on fire, steal, etc.

Next question: is that YOU?!!

Asian Currencies Fallen!

These days, most of headlines discussing about financial market distress in the US is ushering in a new reality to the Asian markets. True, Asia’s banking systems are by no means facing nearly as severe a situation as those of the US or Europe. But even so, the impact of events in the US is likely to have important implications on Asia’s foreign exchange market and monetary policy.

Somehow, in Asia’s currency markets, developments in the US are likely to affect forex rates in two ways. On one hand, the turmoil in the US financial markets should spell a weaker US dollar; this would imply Asian currencies should be under pressure to appreciate. On the other hand, weakness in the US economy in the coming quarters, owing to tighter credit market conditions, will take its toll. The latter should lead to a further deceleration of exports from Asia to the US and the rest of the world. This suggests depreciation pressure will push down Asian currencies. A weaker US financial industry is also likely to lead to a selloff of Asian equities and assets in the US and elsewhere. 

Again, the turmoil in the US financial market and sharp decline in oil prices are likely to change the monetary policy landscape in the rest of Asia. Before recent events, I had thought the dominant monetary policy stance in Asia would be tightening through end-2008. However, expected weaker exports and an increasing negative wealth effect have stepped to the fore — these certainly put pressure on economic growth, although the banking system remains sound across Asia. Elsewhere, inflationary pressure is seen losing momentum as the two biggest contributors to the CPI inflation rate — oil prices and food prices — are likely to start to moderate within the next few months.

With these developments, most Asian monetary authorities should now be changing their stance from tightening to neutral. This policy change should be followed by monetary easing around end-2008, when the market is likely to clearly see that exports are decelerating.

Next question: Rough road ahead?

Why Do Homeless People Keep Living?

I've been thinking lately about why homeless people continue to live.  To be clear, I'm not talking about someone who is perhaps down on their luck, maybe even for a few years.  In that case, I guess there is some clear hope that he or she can get back to it. I'm wondering about the people who go say 5+ years and seem to either go deeper into the hole or stay where they are with no upturn in site.  I've seen people like this around my neighborhood, there never seems to be hope.  Somehow, they wake up every morning with nothing and often nobody but they keep going.

I wonder what keeps them going.  My presumption is that they are not particularly happy and unlikely to be happy in the near future.  So, it's a life of sadness that perpetuates itself. There's got to be something inside that keeps them going because it appears that there is no great reward outside for them.  Who knows maybe they really are happy? (although I doubt it)

An interesting possibility may be that it doesn't matter whether they are happy or sad, that life is not necessarily meant to be a vectored journey towards happiness.  That's certainly a challenging point of view and would make the issue make some level of sense.

One thing's for sure, a meaningful % of us that have something want to try to get those who don't out of it.  Then again, we don't really care do we?  If we really did, I feel like it would be solved on a larger scale than it is now.

Next question: What is it?  What keeps them going?

Price War in Mobile Industry

What is “price management”? In mobile communications, headline ARPU and MoU can be misleading because in many markets there is high double-counting of users.RPM (revenue per minute) is often more useful than ARPU; and in practice we see changes in RPM as the best guide to how efficiently operators manage voice prices.

Where MoU (strictly speaking, MoU adjusted to avoid the effects of double-counting) rises by more than RPM falls, there is positive elasticity of demand and it makes sense to cut prices. Where MoU rises by less than RPM falls, there is negative elasticity and cutting prices does not make sense unless it also boosts subscriber growth.

Sample for Indonesian operator, in the wake of a price offensive launched by no.2 operator Excelcomindo, Indonesia’s mobile market is showing the highest elasticity in Asia: steep declines (50% or more) in RPM have driven increases in adjusted MoU of 200-300% or even higher. I think this strong growth in usage can be sustained. Excelcomindo (owned by Telekom Malaysia International) should be the primary beneficiary, but leading operator Telkomsel (owned by PT Telkom and SingTel) also stands to benefit over time.

Next question: when we will know how to reach for the right price?

Again, mPayment Case

The current market penetration of mobile phones in conjunction with an expected growth of mCommerce still offers a high potential for the growth of mPayment over the next few years. Current analysts have predicted that mPayments will gain a significant foothold in coming years with growing development in high-speed data services. A wide variety of mPayment technologies are available today, but the value of such services is not clear. Why?

Services launched have seen both success and failure and therefore service providers need a realistic vision of the future. MPayment is already in use in many parts of the world, including Europe and Asia, even though not significantly as yet. Taking the failures discussed so far (especially the case of Paybox), I am consider that we are still in an early stage of an innovation process (of TRUST) so we clearly expect the diffusion of mPayment to lie ahead. With the Asian markets showing an enormous take-off and the European market indicating a state of stagnation and towards decline, therefore I just simply conclude that next future research approach should be redirected to these emerging markets.

Next question: Do you think it will be another "Chicken and Egg case" again-and-again?

How to Become A Salesman?

Honestly, role of any salesman is highly demanding (and totally sensitive task that I always trying to avoid, although I couldn't). Somehow, company's management demands such high revenue growth rate - that everyday of work starts to look like running a championship race. At the same time, the accountants in the finance department are reluctant to increase any expenses thus curtailing potential investments needed to achieve the required sales targets. This creates a situation where it appears that its almost impossible to succeed in sales - but there will be few who always seem to achieve their targets with ease. These are people who are known as "Born Salesmen" - but in reality a good salesman is a good drill master who knows the sales drill down to the last details - which can be learnt.... but how? 

Next question: Ask yourself when you’ve been persuaded by a good salesman and think about what happened. Were they honest? 

Somehow, You Shouldn't Need An MBA to Be Expert About Business

Again seeing global economy, it could be argued that although inflation was not appearing in CPI figures, it was already visible in asset markets as artworks, equities, bonds and property all performed well from 2003 to 2006. Central bank monetary policy remained benevolent with tentative rate hikes since policy markers targeted growth rather than the latent inflationary pressure. Paradoxically, Asian central banks kept interest rates extremely low in real terms given their mercantilist backgrounds, and stoked inflationary pressure by running food and fuel subsidies at home.

Current macro economy is now facing the prospect of the triple shock of an extended credit crunch, high inflation and slowing growth; the very three objectives central bank policy is designed to overcome. Meanwhile asset prices are under pressure from not only the unwinding of the goldilocks period as central banks continue to lift short interest rates but also from rising long-term rates as governments see a diminishing of their current account surpluses due to high oil prices and a reduction in capital flows due to increased risk aversion and deleveraging. 

Next question: Do you optimistic for all of this?