2009 Another Storm?

Hard to say! Well...understandably, many investors are glued to high-frequency indicators such as macro data and corporate announcements as they try to feel for an inflection point in the crisis. Portfolios tend to be positioned with respect to this – either on the defensive side of the line, anticipating a prolonged spell of worsening news, or on the

riskier side, hoping to benefit from the first glimmerings of light at the end of tunnel.

The outlook for the global economy continues to deteriorate. Incoming data have, almost uniformly, surprised on the downside. A combination of declining wealth, notably higher uncertainty, and financial disruptions appears to have led to sharp declines in demand around the world. A significant contraction in international trade is helping to propagate these shocks around the globe. Sharply contracting output is likely to lead to further declines in demand as income falls rapidly. There are scant signs that the momentum of this negative cycle is waning.

Policymakers are trying to contain this process through actions on three broad fronts: monetary, fiscal, and financial. Inflation continues to fall rapidly in most countries in the face of lower commodity prices and rapidly growing output gaps. Central banks are lowering short-term interest rates where they can. However, for an increasing number

of central banks, conventional policy tools are at, or are fast approaching, their limits. They are moving on to other options. Fiscal policy is easing in many countries as well, but not with equal force. China, Russia, and the United States appear set to implement the most aggressive fiscal expansions.

Somehow, the biggest changes have come in those countries that are particularly exposed to international trade. I expect the Japanese economy to contract through the end of this year, with real output GDP falling 3-1/2%. Similarly, I am seeing real output to fall in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan this year, and we expect the Russian economy to stagnate (ref from many financial news). I see this all the major industrial economies to contract substantially this year, and only sputtering recoveries until 2010. For emerging economies, 2009 is likely to be the worst year of growth performance since the crisis of 1998. For the global economy as a whole, this is likely to be the worst year for growth in almost 60 years.

Ironically, the long term shape of the world is easier to describe than the short-term transition. How quickly the private sector deleverages and whether it responds to fiscal and monetary stimulus are open questions. But regardless of how the world gets there, we believe that it will have certain characteristics – less leveraged, less imbalanced in trade flows, more regulated and so on.

Next question: Can we change this condition?

My 2009 Wish

Somehow, since I started writing down my New Year Wish List last year, I might as well continue on with this tradition. Just like last year, I will be specific with my wish list. I will start with the most important thing that anyone can give to me:

From ANYONE who knows me (family, relatives, friends and online buddies--here and abroad), if you ever think of me this New Year, don't buy me a New Year card or gift (**sigh**), instead I encourage you to do any one of these:

-- give a bag of groceries to a less fortunate family in your neighborhood

-- sort out your closet and gather up the clothes and shoes you don't wear anymore and donate it to an institution or orphanage

-- or simply give a cash donation to a foundation of your choice.

This was also my little wish last year, only that I added the last bit about a cash donation to a foundation of your choice, and only that it is now first on my wishlist.

Honestly, I am not yearning for any material thing this New Year wish. I'd rather that we do a good deed and make someone happy this season and that will be enough for me.

Now from Myself

The gift of learning - one of my goals this year is (was?) to have suitable job opportunities also my passion but I still haven't done it but I really am determined to be more focus as soon as the "hectic-ness" of my life subsides

The gift of inner peace and healing - I have faced so many nerve-wrecking challenges this year and a part of my heart and sanity has been very very hurt so I'm praying that my inner peace comes back and for the healing of my heart.

In terms of material thing, I have no idea what to give to myself. It has been my tradition to reward myself something during New Year but as I've said, I'm not yearning enough for something to push me to buy anything for myself. 

So there, my wishlist.

Advance New Year! Hope all your wishes come true! 

Sociopathic Checklist

Just wondering, after reading a health magazine -- here is a list from a professional diagnostic about sociopathic disturbances. Sociopathy is very rare. Many proplr exhibit one or two of these symptoms on occasion, but in an innocent or testing way. Any cluster or habitual set of them should send you looking for professional help immediately.

-Talks about things that are scary or disgusting

-bullies children (hits, bites, shoves…)

-has no child friends; perhaps a sadistic imaginary friend

-Swears

-hurts animals on purpose

-ritually and intentionally disfigures dolls/figures

-has strange habits (i.e. tries to strangle self, repetitively draws strange symbols) is violent towards caregivers

-threatens

-has an eerie sense of humor/happiness is precocious about destructive themes, strategies

-concocts pretend plan to kill parents/sibling, set something on fire, steal, etc.

Next question: is that YOU?!!

Asian Currencies Fallen!

These days, most of headlines discussing about financial market distress in the US is ushering in a new reality to the Asian markets. True, Asia’s banking systems are by no means facing nearly as severe a situation as those of the US or Europe. But even so, the impact of events in the US is likely to have important implications on Asia’s foreign exchange market and monetary policy.

Somehow, in Asia’s currency markets, developments in the US are likely to affect forex rates in two ways. On one hand, the turmoil in the US financial markets should spell a weaker US dollar; this would imply Asian currencies should be under pressure to appreciate. On the other hand, weakness in the US economy in the coming quarters, owing to tighter credit market conditions, will take its toll. The latter should lead to a further deceleration of exports from Asia to the US and the rest of the world. This suggests depreciation pressure will push down Asian currencies. A weaker US financial industry is also likely to lead to a selloff of Asian equities and assets in the US and elsewhere. 

Again, the turmoil in the US financial market and sharp decline in oil prices are likely to change the monetary policy landscape in the rest of Asia. Before recent events, I had thought the dominant monetary policy stance in Asia would be tightening through end-2008. However, expected weaker exports and an increasing negative wealth effect have stepped to the fore — these certainly put pressure on economic growth, although the banking system remains sound across Asia. Elsewhere, inflationary pressure is seen losing momentum as the two biggest contributors to the CPI inflation rate — oil prices and food prices — are likely to start to moderate within the next few months.

With these developments, most Asian monetary authorities should now be changing their stance from tightening to neutral. This policy change should be followed by monetary easing around end-2008, when the market is likely to clearly see that exports are decelerating.

Next question: Rough road ahead?

Why Do Homeless People Keep Living?

I've been thinking lately about why homeless people continue to live.  To be clear, I'm not talking about someone who is perhaps down on their luck, maybe even for a few years.  In that case, I guess there is some clear hope that he or she can get back to it. I'm wondering about the people who go say 5+ years and seem to either go deeper into the hole or stay where they are with no upturn in site.  I've seen people like this around my neighborhood, there never seems to be hope.  Somehow, they wake up every morning with nothing and often nobody but they keep going.

I wonder what keeps them going.  My presumption is that they are not particularly happy and unlikely to be happy in the near future.  So, it's a life of sadness that perpetuates itself. There's got to be something inside that keeps them going because it appears that there is no great reward outside for them.  Who knows maybe they really are happy? (although I doubt it)

An interesting possibility may be that it doesn't matter whether they are happy or sad, that life is not necessarily meant to be a vectored journey towards happiness.  That's certainly a challenging point of view and would make the issue make some level of sense.

One thing's for sure, a meaningful % of us that have something want to try to get those who don't out of it.  Then again, we don't really care do we?  If we really did, I feel like it would be solved on a larger scale than it is now.

Next question: What is it?  What keeps them going?

Price War in Mobile Industry

What is “price management”? In mobile communications, headline ARPU and MoU can be misleading because in many markets there is high double-counting of users.RPM (revenue per minute) is often more useful than ARPU; and in practice we see changes in RPM as the best guide to how efficiently operators manage voice prices.

Where MoU (strictly speaking, MoU adjusted to avoid the effects of double-counting) rises by more than RPM falls, there is positive elasticity of demand and it makes sense to cut prices. Where MoU rises by less than RPM falls, there is negative elasticity and cutting prices does not make sense unless it also boosts subscriber growth.

Sample for Indonesian operator, in the wake of a price offensive launched by no.2 operator Excelcomindo, Indonesia’s mobile market is showing the highest elasticity in Asia: steep declines (50% or more) in RPM have driven increases in adjusted MoU of 200-300% or even higher. I think this strong growth in usage can be sustained. Excelcomindo (owned by Telekom Malaysia International) should be the primary beneficiary, but leading operator Telkomsel (owned by PT Telkom and SingTel) also stands to benefit over time.

Next question: when we will know how to reach for the right price?

Again, mPayment Case

The current market penetration of mobile phones in conjunction with an expected growth of mCommerce still offers a high potential for the growth of mPayment over the next few years. Current analysts have predicted that mPayments will gain a significant foothold in coming years with growing development in high-speed data services. A wide variety of mPayment technologies are available today, but the value of such services is not clear. Why?

Services launched have seen both success and failure and therefore service providers need a realistic vision of the future. MPayment is already in use in many parts of the world, including Europe and Asia, even though not significantly as yet. Taking the failures discussed so far (especially the case of Paybox), I am consider that we are still in an early stage of an innovation process (of TRUST) so we clearly expect the diffusion of mPayment to lie ahead. With the Asian markets showing an enormous take-off and the European market indicating a state of stagnation and towards decline, therefore I just simply conclude that next future research approach should be redirected to these emerging markets.

Next question: Do you think it will be another "Chicken and Egg case" again-and-again?