Outsourcing Your Life...

I was thinking the other day about how, in these awful economic times, outsourcing is affecting the economy.  I'm not referring to manufacturing because frankly if the defect rate & cost is lower and the time to market is not significantly impacted, that decision is a no brainer.

I'm referring to the companies who have chosen to outsource, for example, their call centers, network operation, etc.  The benefits of cost and 24/7 availability is clear.  However level of service and revenue generation are at most worse than the US economy. 

But the killer is that hundreds of thousands of jobs that would normally pay between $10-20 are gone.  I think those types of jobs are the ones that provide the foundation for our macro economy.  Those jobs are fuel for car purchases, mortgage payments, etc.

I worked at a company where our boss (who is trying to be an absolute superstar) had a wild proposition:

- Provide world class service looking out for the best interests of the customer first in a simple way (i.e., don't "jam" offers down their throats)

- The revenue will follow** (sensitive)

He was right.  He's done on a smaller scale and a huge scale.  It can be done but most companies don't do it or worse don't even believe it can be done.

In the meantime, our economy keeps sucking wind and when it comes back, we still won't have the valuable foundation that these types of jobs provide.

Next question: are we an asset or liability in the company?

VoIP Theory and Beyond

Following my early journal - recently, I just read an article again; theorizes that the stock market meltdown and slowing economy will actually spur faster VoIP growth.

It was mentioned that more and more people will be under the gun to cut costs. There are a number of ways to cut costs but one way to cut costs tends to jump out at you -- the PHONE BILL. This will force many companies to take the digital/VoIP plunge. As a result, VoIP sales will increase significantly over the next year or two.

Additionally, stock market crash has effectively pulled in the VoIP growth curve by 6-12 months or more! As identified in the Post-Melt Down chart, VoIP sales may increase by 200-300% over previous forecasts. Thus, next year's VoIP growth can be expected to jump from 4% to 8% or 12% or more next year... (let see!)

Of course theories, and pretty chart graphs can be made to make anything look good. Is the VoIP industry truly headed towards faster growth in this economic climate? I tend to agree, even with comment from my colleague. There are indications that not only enterprises, but also municipalities and public services are deploying VoIP to save on costs. 

Anyway... my simple comment that some example doesn't make it the rule, I do think companies, municipalities, etc. are looking to cut costs and VoIP is one sure-fire way to do just that... rest is about people behaviour

VoIP in Bear Economy

I just read an interesting report by IBISWorld just named VoIP as the predicted #1 performer In 2009 - it even beat video games. Yet more proof that VoIP isn't dead and indeed VoIP is the one shining bright spot in an otherwise dismal bear economy as we know currently.

VoIP is indeed defying the "bears" of the economy. Reminds me of when Tarzan defied that huge tiger in the woods. Sure, the tiger got on top of Tarzan, this was just a training exercise for Tarzan's "You don't want to tick me off stare." At the end of the wresting match, Tarzan just looked at the tiger, the tiger knew he lost, and walked away. Tigers don't mess with Tarzan and apparently this symbolic symptom in bear of the economy don't mess with VoIP. 

Check out the news release below after you watch Tarzan give the tiger his patented stare down:

 

Top 10 Industries

By IBISWorld (2009)

The recession is crippling businesses across the nation, but several industries will remain unscathed by the current economic strife, according to recent Recession Updates published by industry research firm IBISWorld.  As one of the nation's most respected independent publishers of business intelligence research reports, IBISWorld today announced the top 10 industries expected to have the largest revenue growth in 2009:

INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH 2009

1.    Voice Over Internet Protocol Providers (VoIP)   20.1%

2.    ecommerce & Online Auctions                                12.6%

3.    Biotechnology                                                               10.3%

4.    Engine, Turbine & Power Transmission               10.0%

       Equipment Manufacturing 

5.    Scheduled Bus Service                                                 9.2%

6.    Court Reporting Services                                            7.7%

7.    Community Housing Services                                   7.5%

8.    Search Engines                                                               6.5%

9.    Family Counseling                                                        6.1%

10.   Video Games                                                                   5.8%

"Emerging industries remain well represented and continue to benefit from technological innovation and cost advantages," explained George Van Horn, senior analyst with IBISWorld.  "Unfortunately, the impact of the recession is equally pronounced among sectors directly benefitting from the social and financial stress associated with the downturn." 

While only five percent of all U.S. industries are fortunate enough to be positively impacted by the recession, IBISWorld research estimates that nearly 60 percent of all industries are negatively impacted or worse.

Next question: Everywhere in the world！What do you think?

2009 Another Storm?

Hard to say! Well...understandably, many investors are glued to high-frequency indicators such as macro data and corporate announcements as they try to feel for an inflection point in the crisis. Portfolios tend to be positioned with respect to this – either on the defensive side of the line, anticipating a prolonged spell of worsening news, or on the

riskier side, hoping to benefit from the first glimmerings of light at the end of tunnel.

The outlook for the global economy continues to deteriorate. Incoming data have, almost uniformly, surprised on the downside. A combination of declining wealth, notably higher uncertainty, and financial disruptions appears to have led to sharp declines in demand around the world. A significant contraction in international trade is helping to propagate these shocks around the globe. Sharply contracting output is likely to lead to further declines in demand as income falls rapidly. There are scant signs that the momentum of this negative cycle is waning.

Policymakers are trying to contain this process through actions on three broad fronts: monetary, fiscal, and financial. Inflation continues to fall rapidly in most countries in the face of lower commodity prices and rapidly growing output gaps. Central banks are lowering short-term interest rates where they can. However, for an increasing number

of central banks, conventional policy tools are at, or are fast approaching, their limits. They are moving on to other options. Fiscal policy is easing in many countries as well, but not with equal force. China, Russia, and the United States appear set to implement the most aggressive fiscal expansions.

Somehow, the biggest changes have come in those countries that are particularly exposed to international trade. I expect the Japanese economy to contract through the end of this year, with real output GDP falling 3-1/2%. Similarly, I am seeing real output to fall in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan this year, and we expect the Russian economy to stagnate (ref from many financial news). I see this all the major industrial economies to contract substantially this year, and only sputtering recoveries until 2010. For emerging economies, 2009 is likely to be the worst year of growth performance since the crisis of 1998. For the global economy as a whole, this is likely to be the worst year for growth in almost 60 years.

Ironically, the long term shape of the world is easier to describe than the short-term transition. How quickly the private sector deleverages and whether it responds to fiscal and monetary stimulus are open questions. But regardless of how the world gets there, we believe that it will have certain characteristics – less leveraged, less imbalanced in trade flows, more regulated and so on.

Next question: Can we change this condition?

My 2009 Wish

Somehow, since I started writing down my New Year Wish List last year, I might as well continue on with this tradition. Just like last year, I will be specific with my wish list. I will start with the most important thing that anyone can give to me:

From ANYONE who knows me (family, relatives, friends and online buddies--here and abroad), if you ever think of me this New Year, don't buy me a New Year card or gift (**sigh**), instead I encourage you to do any one of these:

-- give a bag of groceries to a less fortunate family in your neighborhood

-- sort out your closet and gather up the clothes and shoes you don't wear anymore and donate it to an institution or orphanage

-- or simply give a cash donation to a foundation of your choice.

This was also my little wish last year, only that I added the last bit about a cash donation to a foundation of your choice, and only that it is now first on my wishlist.

Honestly, I am not yearning for any material thing this New Year wish. I'd rather that we do a good deed and make someone happy this season and that will be enough for me.

Now from Myself

The gift of learning - one of my goals this year is (was?) to have suitable job opportunities also my passion but I still haven't done it but I really am determined to be more focus as soon as the "hectic-ness" of my life subsides

The gift of inner peace and healing - I have faced so many nerve-wrecking challenges this year and a part of my heart and sanity has been very very hurt so I'm praying that my inner peace comes back and for the healing of my heart.

In terms of material thing, I have no idea what to give to myself. It has been my tradition to reward myself something during New Year but as I've said, I'm not yearning enough for something to push me to buy anything for myself. 

So there, my wishlist.

Advance New Year! Hope all your wishes come true! 

Sociopathic Checklist

Just wondering, after reading a health magazine -- here is a list from a professional diagnostic about sociopathic disturbances. Sociopathy is very rare. Many proplr exhibit one or two of these symptoms on occasion, but in an innocent or testing way. Any cluster or habitual set of them should send you looking for professional help immediately.

-Talks about things that are scary or disgusting

-bullies children (hits, bites, shoves…)

-has no child friends; perhaps a sadistic imaginary friend

-Swears

-hurts animals on purpose

-ritually and intentionally disfigures dolls/figures

-has strange habits (i.e. tries to strangle self, repetitively draws strange symbols) is violent towards caregivers

-threatens

-has an eerie sense of humor/happiness is precocious about destructive themes, strategies

-concocts pretend plan to kill parents/sibling, set something on fire, steal, etc.

Next question: is that YOU?!!

Asian Currencies Fallen!

These days, most of headlines discussing about financial market distress in the US is ushering in a new reality to the Asian markets. True, Asia’s banking systems are by no means facing nearly as severe a situation as those of the US or Europe. But even so, the impact of events in the US is likely to have important implications on Asia’s foreign exchange market and monetary policy.

Somehow, in Asia’s currency markets, developments in the US are likely to affect forex rates in two ways. On one hand, the turmoil in the US financial markets should spell a weaker US dollar; this would imply Asian currencies should be under pressure to appreciate. On the other hand, weakness in the US economy in the coming quarters, owing to tighter credit market conditions, will take its toll. The latter should lead to a further deceleration of exports from Asia to the US and the rest of the world. This suggests depreciation pressure will push down Asian currencies. A weaker US financial industry is also likely to lead to a selloff of Asian equities and assets in the US and elsewhere. 

Again, the turmoil in the US financial market and sharp decline in oil prices are likely to change the monetary policy landscape in the rest of Asia. Before recent events, I had thought the dominant monetary policy stance in Asia would be tightening through end-2008. However, expected weaker exports and an increasing negative wealth effect have stepped to the fore — these certainly put pressure on economic growth, although the banking system remains sound across Asia. Elsewhere, inflationary pressure is seen losing momentum as the two biggest contributors to the CPI inflation rate — oil prices and food prices — are likely to start to moderate within the next few months.

With these developments, most Asian monetary authorities should now be changing their stance from tightening to neutral. This policy change should be followed by monetary easing around end-2008, when the market is likely to clearly see that exports are decelerating.

Next question: Rough road ahead?